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Stuart Rothenberg

The Latest From Stuart Rothenberg
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg cautions that current polls cannot predict the election year dynamics for 2024.

Breaking news: The 2024 election isn’t tomorrow

Conspiracy theorist and anti-vaccination activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies to the House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on July 20.

2024 outlook: Moving from strange to bizarre

Former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas may not raise enough money to compete seriously for the GOP presidential nomination.

Having more GOP candidates does not mean more equal contenders

Former Vice President Mike Pence acknowledges the crowd after a speech at The Heritage Foundation in October. Pence is running for president at a time former President Donald Trump is dominating media coverage and enjoys a high degree of loyalty among Republicans.

With Mike Pence, the conventional wisdom might be correct

Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis tried in 1988 to win national support by running on his record as Massachusetts governor.

DeSantis may want to ask Dukakis about running on Florida record

Sen. Tim Scott announces his run for president in North Charleston, S.C., on Monday.

Growing GOP presidential field helps Donald Trump

Guests walk past vendors as they arrive for what was supposed to be a rally hosted by former President Donald Trump on May 13 in Des Moines, Iowa. Trump's campaign canceled the rally before the gates were officially opened due to the possibility of tornadoes moving through the region.

With Trump 2024, never say never

Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat seeking the nomination for Senate in Texas next year, joined members of the Congressional Black Caucus on the House steps on Feb. 8, 2022.

Does Colin Allred stand a chance against Ted Cruz in Texas?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his candidacy for president on April 19, 2023 in Boston.

Long shots for president? How about no shots

The combative style of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely believed to be preparing to enter the race for president, hurts his ability to appeal to voters who might be turned off by former President Donald Trump, columnist Stu Rothenberg writes.

What is Ron DeSantis DeDoing?

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., delivers the keynote address at the Charleston County GOP Black History Month Banquet at the Citadel Alumni Center in Charleston, S.C., on Feb. 16.

Not ready for prime time

Speaker John Boehner shakes hands with President Barack Obama before Obama addressed a joint session of Congress on Sept. 8, 2011.

Don’t expect standoff over debt limit to end anytime soon

Then-President Donald Trump alongside Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who was then majority leader, in 2019.

For Trump and Trumpers, the script doesn’t change

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, seen last year on a video screen at a Turning Point Action rally in Youngstown, Ohio, is widely expected to seek the GOP presidential nomination.

The incredible shrinking GOP presidential field

Kari Lake, former Republican candidate for Arizona governor, talks with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., left, and Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., after the National Prayer Breakfast in the Capitol Visitor Center on February 2, 2023.

Can’t anyone here play this game?

Samantha Power, left, U.S. Agency for International Development administrator, and Oksana Markarova, Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., attend a rally at the Lincoln Memorial on Saturday to mark the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine, Putinism, isolationism and the GOP

Gov. Larry Hogan, R-Md., is certainly qualified to be president. But there is no chance he would win the GOP nomination, Stu Rothenberg writes.

On your mark. Get set. Yawn.

Nikki Haley during her 2009 interview with Stuart Rothenberg at the Roll Call offices.

What my 2009 interview with Nikki Haley tells me about 2024

Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, is one of the more prominent House Republicans.

Republicans still trying to starve the beast

The political dynamics for each party in the majority in the House and Senate put their future in charge in jeopardy, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

Could both the House and Senate flip in 2024?

Speaker Kevin McCarthy accepts the gavel from Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries early Saturday after McCarthy won the speakership on the 15th ballot.

The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

Then-President Donald Trump alongside Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who was then majority leader, in 2019.

The beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Probably.

Washington Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had no chance in a solidly Republican district, but on Friday she was drawing a number in the new member lottery for Capitol Hill office space.

Rothenberg’s best and worst of 2022

President Joe Biden conducts a news conference on the midterm elections and other issues at the White House on Wednesday.

Surprisingly, a choice, not a referendum

President Joe Biden didn’t suffer typical losses Tuesday, but it is far from obvious that he will be strengthened by the midterm results, Rothenberg writes.

Midterm jinxes and presidential rebounds

A trailer with messages supporting former President Donald Trump and Doug Mastriano, Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, is seen last month along I-76 in western Pennsylvania.

Presidential approval, election mandates and the midterm dynamic

Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., is in a tough race coming into the home stretch of the election.

Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?

Republicans won’t want to give President Joe Biden any successes in 2023 or 2024, Stuart Rothenberg writes. Above, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, left, and Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

Meet the new politics, same as the old politics

Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer was ousted in an August Republican primary after Democrats spent heavily informing GOP voters about his opponent's support for former President Donald Trump.

So what if Democrats meddled in GOP primaries?

Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman arrives for a rally in Philadelphia on Saturday. Polls show Fetterman leading GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, and  Democrats are showing growing confidence about the race, Rothenberg writes.

The fight for the Senate: Fundamentals, polling and opposition research

President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi at the semiconductor legislation signing ceremony at the White House in August. A string of legislative accomplishments has coincided with a more favorable political environment for Democrats heading into the midterm elections.

Midterms 2022: April seems like ancient history

President Joe Biden has seen his approval ratings tick up slightly. Several political factors are giving Democrats hope they can avert historical midterm campaign trends, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms

Kansas Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids reacts to the announcement that a proposed constitutional amendment on abortion was defeated during an election watch party in Overland Park on Aug. 2.

What the national analysis of Kansas left out

Andrew Yang, above, is joining forces with former Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly and former New Jersey GOP Gov. Christine Todd Whitman to launch a third party. Stu Rothenberg considers the challenges they face.

A third major party? Don’t hold your breath

President Joe Biden's bad poll numbers should make predictions for the fall campaign easy, but 2022 is not a normal year.

Confused about 2022? You should be

Voters in Nye County arrive for early voting in May at a community center in Pahrump, Nev. Nevada is on the short list of states that will determine who controls the Senate next year, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

A handful of voters will decide Senate control in 2022

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, D-Pa., speaks with guests during a rally at the UFCW Local 1776 KS headquarters in Plymouth Meeting, Pa., in April.

Will the Democrats’ working-class strategy pay off?

Sen. Christopher S. Murphy seems to understand that politics is the art of accomplishing the possible, and he's the kind of candidate Democrats should be looking to recruit, columnist Stuart Rothenberg says.

What’s next for Chris Murphy?

Gov. Brian Kemp takes a photo as Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger looks on at an annual cookout in Glennville, Ga., in April. Kemp is expected to defeat former Sen. David Perdue — former President Donald Trump's pick — this week in the GOP gubernatorial  primary.

Trump gubernatorial endorsements show questionable judgment

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and his supporters continue to drive much of the policy agenda of the Democratic Party.

Sometimes, a political party needs to listen to the voters

Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., joined by, from left, Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., Patty Murray, D-Wash., Mazie K. Hirono, D-Hawaii, and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., speaks Thursday during a news conference to announce the Senate will vote on the Women's Health Protection Act of 2022.

It’s probably still the economy, stupid

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., discusses inflation during a news conference in March. In a new survey,   more Americans trust Republicans to do a better job handling inflation than trust Democrats.

Inflation, recession and the 2022 midterms

Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden leave the Capitol following Biden's speech in Statuary Hall on Jan. 6.

In 2024, it could be Biden, Harris or bust

Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., and Herschel Walker watch from the sidelines during the Congressional Football Game at Gallaudet University in Washington in 2017. Walker is running for Senate in Georgia.

From Schwarzenegger to Oz, GOP celebrities in politics

President Joe Biden's poll numbers illustrate the challenge to Democrats as they approach the November midterm elections.

New polls confirm Democratic problems for November

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., argues with Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., off camera, during a "Build Back Better for Women" rally held by Democrats on the House steps in September.

Crippling blood-drenched communists: Extreme name-calling in 2022

President Joe Biden at his State of the Union address last week. Biden's job approval in a Marist survey surged by 27 points among Democrats and 17 points  among independents.

Why the Marist Poll is worth considering

Republican Sen. Rob Portman typified the kind of mainstream conservative Ohio elected, but candidates seeking to succeed him are appealing to the party's extremes, columnist Stu Rothenberg writes.

As Ohio became reliably red, the Republican Party was changing

President Joe Biden,  seen in the Capitol last month with Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, will be the focus of the midterm election dynamic, a pattern following other midterm dynamics, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

When nothing beats something

Vice President Mike Pence is seen here with Speaker Nancy Pelosi during the joint session of Congress to certify the Electoral College votes on Jan. 7, 2021. Rioters had stormed the Capitol the day before.

Don’t bet on the GOP coming to its senses just yet