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‘Diminished influence’: California’s missing clout

'Juice' may be tested as disaster aid for fires considered by Congress

House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar center, and Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu, left, seen here in December with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., are the highest-ranking Californians in congressional leadership in the 119th Congress.
House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar center, and Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu, left, seen here in December with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., are the highest-ranking Californians in congressional leadership in the 119th Congress. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

This is the first Congress since 2003 that no speaker, majority or minority leader has called California home. 

Let that sink in for a moment. It’s the nation’s most populous state, and one that has dominated Congress in clout. But no matter the metric, California’s stature has dropped.

Just over 800 days ago, Nancy Pelosi was speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy was about to ascend to his short-lived speakership and Sen. Dianne Feinstein was the longest-serving woman in the Senate. Those Californians carried plenty of heft on their own within the nation’s largest delegation.

Now, the state’s senators are 77th and 87th in seniority. There are zero committee chairs from California. Sen. Alex Padilla, a Democrat, is California’s lone Senate ranking member, on the Rules and Administration Committee, up against former Republican leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

In the House, four Democrats from the state serve as committee ranking members. Six Californians serve on Appropriations with Republican Rep. Ken Calvert chairing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and GOP Rep. David Valadao chairing the Legislative Branch Appropriations Subcommittee.

Of course, two of the top four House Democrats in leadership are from California: Conference Chair Pete Aguilar and Vice Chair Ted Lieu. Fun fact: They were in the same freshman class.

I chatted with a senior staffer for a top California leader who suggested that even with diminished high-level positions, among House Democrats there is still a vibe that the state is too influential. California is so big it has to be split by regions in the caucus.

There’s the vibe, and then there’s the numbers. Calculating clout with the many factors beyond what I’ve mentioned here is such an onerous task no one does it anymore. 

Consider this description from Roll Call’s 2011 clout rankings, explaining how the Golden State “has been ensconced in the top position” since the paper began calculating clout in 1990.

“California has, by far, the most juice in Congress,” wrote Jonathan Strong and David Meyers.

The juice wasn’t about Democratic dominance in the delegation, given that Republicans had just swept back into power in the House on a tea party wave. There were three Republican chairs, leading the powerful Rules, Oversight and Armed Services committees.

Pelosi was the speaker-turned-minority leader and her leadership ranks included Xavier Becerra, who had just been appointed to the so-called super committee aimed at reducing the deficit (remember that?), all of which put California “in a class by itself,” Roll Call reported.

That year, Texas was the rising star, bumping New York down from the second position. 

In the most recent Roll Call Clout Index in 2017, Texas continued to dominate, closing the gap between itself and California to just 8 percent. It’s been nearly 8 years since Roll Call did the ranking, and I’m a journalist, not a mathematician, but I’m willing to wager that the state’s population and the stature of both Pelosi and McCarthy would have kept California at least in the top three until this year. 

“It’s nowhere near where it was four years ago,” the senior staffer admitted. “Clearly there’s some diminished influence there.”

Given that this newish column aims to focus on the view from the West, I’d already been planning to write about California’s drop in clout at the start of this Congress. It seems all the more relevant now as my community is literally sifting through the rubble of two historic fires roughly 35 miles apart.

We were OK where I live, other than bad air, stir-crazy kids and heartbreak for this city I’ve called home since leaving D.C. in 2015. 

I’m left wondering if Congress will find empathy for what Los Angeles has endured. Chances are, if you’re a lawmaker, you’ve got a friend from the Golden State, even if he or she might hold less power today. 

When I arrived at the Los Angeles Times in 2015, I created “The 55,” diving deep into Congress’ largest and very powerful delegation. Those were the days McCarthy exerted his influence on drought policy. Pelosi was a key negotiator on every major policy measure. 

Another factoid: A likely census undercount thanks to COVID-19 and immigration policy in 2020, along with people leaving the state for more affordable living, cost California a House seat for the first time ever. If the LA Times project still existed, they would have to rename it “The 54.”

Without McCarthy at the top, California’s Republicans are not necessarily positioned to convince President Donald Trump to do much for the state. On Friday, the president did bring many from the state’s GOP delegation with him to see fire damage, and to join a bipartisan roundtable where he gave individual shoutouts. None of the Republicans represent the areas affected by the fires; the last elected congressional Republican with a district that was anchored in Los Angeles County lost in November, Mike Garcia.

Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman is hopeful, however, that he can appeal to Speaker Mike Johnson and others on both humanity and logic. He represents the Palisades area that Trump called “devastating” and an “incineration” after seeing it up close.

“It’s very clear that we have a California Democratic delegation that has provided the key votes to places like Louisiana and Florida, and now it’s our turn,” Sherman said in an interview over the weekend, with clear intention for the states he chose as examples, being that is where Johnson and Trump hail from.

“We are certainly united in the fact that California needs a substantial aid package and it shouldn’t be conditioned,” he said, adding that it’s not the fault of the homeowners who need help that the state has environmental laws and voter registration policy that Trump doesn’t like.

Sherman told Trump on Friday that while he might not like abortion policy in Louisiana or gun policy in North Dakota, he would never support disaster aid for them being tied to unrelated policy matters. 

“I’ve got people in the Palisades who voted for Trump and hate the smelt and the last thing we are going to do is apportion aid based on how they voted,” he told me. (Smelt is a reference to the endangered delta smelt whose status Trump has blamed for water policies he does not support.)

He got a loose commitment from the president that he would consider ensuring no tariffs on building materials to get people rebuilding quickly and without additional costs. 

“We’re on the same side on this one,” Trump told Sherman at the roundtable. 

That left Sherman feeling positive about securing assistance for what will be the most expensive natural disaster in the nation’s history: “The whole country knows we’ve been hit, so when Congress passes a bill with a big number in it, people will understand.”

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