ANALYSIS — Democratic strategist James Carville is getting a lot of ink these past few days for calling for his party to beat a strategic retreat and let the GOP have its moment, which he doesn’t think is sustainable. It has prompted a lot of debate, and it’s timely given the Republican majority House and Senate adopting their own versions of budget resolutions in the last week with no Democratic votes. 

But Carville’s indelible observation from when he ran Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign is also worth revisiting, because it is bearing out in a series of recent polls: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

That focus enabled Clinton to overcome scandals, questions about his experience and the advantages of George H.W. Bush’s incumbency. And for any politician looking for contemporary success, it’s worth a peek at the first surveys taken in the context of the swearing in of the 119th Congress and President Donald Trump in January. 

Exit polls: not so good, poor

November’s exit polling showed 68 percent said the condition of the economy was “not good” or “poor.” Trump won 70 percent of their votes. Of the 22,966 surveyed, 31 percent said the economy was “excellent” or “good.” Vice President Kamala Harris won 92 percent of those voters, but there weren’t as many of them. 

Asked what their most important issue was, “democracy” came in first at 34 percent, followed by “economy” at 32 percent. The other issues weren’t close to those two: “Abortion” (14 percent), “immigration” (12 percent) and “foreign policy” (4 percent.) 

Consumer confidence takes a header

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined 7 points for February, to 98.3. That was an eight-month low, and “the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” according to Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. 

According to the board’s survey, “comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.” Translation: The results cannot be entirely pegged to the lagging indicators and policies of the Biden administration. 

Trends emerge

Earlier this month, Congress saw its best approval rating jump in Gallup public polling since the early days of the Biden administration in May 2021. That number, though, is still in what the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., would likely refer to as the “friends and family” category: 29 percent. 

As for Trump? His numbers are underwater across the board in Gallup’s latest polling. Overall, 51 percent disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while 45 percent approve, a slight decline from his January numbers. On his handling of the economy, 54 percent disapproved, while 42 percent approved. 

That survey was conducted Feb. 3-16, so it did not take into account events of the past couple of weeks. 

But those approval/disapproval numbers mostly comport with a more recent Economist/YouGov poll taken Feb. 23-25. 

Back to the underlying theme, here: Asked what their top issues are, 23 percent chose “inflation/prices,” followed by “jobs and the economy” with 12 percent and “health care” at 11 percent. Everything else was in single digits, including “taxes” at 7 percent. 

It is still the economy. Anyone who doubts that is, well …