Donald Trump is off to the fastest start in American presidential history, shutting down government departments and agencies, laying off government workers, and threatening universities and law firms. 

There’s no reason to believe that the president and his top political henchmen, Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk, will alter their style or agenda. 

Sure, Musk may look for ways to adopt a lower profile in the short term amid growing questions about his judgment and appeal. But Trump and his allies continue to consolidate executive power and undermine the independence of the legislative branch. 

The biggest questions now are whether the federal judiciary will act as a check on Trump and whether the results of a crucial state judicial election in Wisconsin reflected growing voter dissatisfaction with Trump.

Wisconsin

The Wisconsin results, which were expected to be a razor-thin win for liberal Susan Crawford, turned out to be a solid 10-point victory for her.

Trump and Musk interjected themselves into the judicial race (supporting conservative Brad Schimel and making the contest largely into a referendum on Trump and Musk), which could prompt Republican officeholders to look for ways to establish their political independence.

Crawford’s surprising margin suggests she benefited from strong Democratic turnout in Democratic areas — including places like Madison, Milwaukee and Eau Claire — but also over-performed in important swing counties, including Brown (Green Bay), Kenosha and Racine.

Of course, the Wisconsin results won’t stop Trump from pronouncing falsehoods about the 2020 elections, Ukraine, Russia, and the behavior of U.S. agencies and Cabinet departments. That’s what he does.

Tariffs

Trump is also likely to continue with his barrage of tariffs on friend and foe alike. 

Somehow, Trump has come to believe that what worked in the last years of the 19th century is good for the 21st century, which means more tariffs on goods coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico, but also from China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Japan and Taiwan. The president doesn’t seem to understand that what worked for President William McKinley may not work in 2026.

Trump’s tariffs had an immediate impact on Wall Street, which resulted in tanking equities markets.

Trump once said he could end inflation and boost economic growth immediately upon taking office. And while he and his allies now say that Americans need to accept some near-term “pain,” Trump never prepared American voters for a stock market crash and stagflation.

“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods,” said Trump at a rally in Bozeman, Mont., on Aug. 9.

Ten days later in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., he promised, “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again.”

A month later, at an event in Erie, Pa., Trump told a crowd, “We’re going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It’s too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We’re going to get the prices down.”

The tariffs have been a disaster so far, and it’s easy to see the president getting in a fight with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over interest rates. Financial experts have raised the possibility of a recession, and some now talk about stagflation. 

The House and Senate in 2026

Electorally, the result of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election is a nightmare for Republicans, including the president, since it raises more questions about GOP prospects in next year’s elections. 

The House, which already was “in play,” now looks ripe for picking by the Democrats. Last week, Republicans retained two Florida House seats in special elections, but Democratic nominees in both seats over-performed. And that was before Trump announced tariffs — and the stock market went into free fall. 

Given the current direction of the U.S. economy, Democrats deserve to be favored to win the House in next year’s midterms.

At first blush, the fight for the Senate in 2026 doesn’t look like much of a contest right now. 

According to Inside Elections, two GOP seats (Maine and North Carolina) and four Democratic seats (Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota) are “in play,” which means Republican control of the Senate is not at risk.

But the Trump tariffs could discredit both the president and his party, making Republican seats that are now “safe” much more competitive, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. It could also make the four Republican Senate targets all but impossible for the GOP to win.

Some observers like to downplay the significance of special elections, noting that they are “special.” But combining the Wisconsin results with the reaction to Trump’s tariff policy and renewed concern about a recession and/or inflation should give Republican strategists plenty to worry about.