As Republicans work through their “big, beautiful bill,” its overall strategic objective has to be this: Will it help members address their constituents’ needs and concerns? Many media pundits have belittled their efforts so far as nothing more than pure politics to pacify the MAGA base at the expense of the rest of the electorate. 

In fact, what Republicans are after is a broad-based economic bill focused on helping the middle- and working-class get ahead through policies that fight inflation and keep taxes low for everyone.

Critics’ complaints would be better directed at former President Joe Biden and Hill Democrats’ trillion-dollar spending bills, passed during his first two years in office. When he decided to go with the American Rescue Plan and pass it with just Democratic votes, he aimed to please the base. And please them he did.

That bill increased government spending by $1.9 trillion. The Democratic base cheered. But by the summer of 2022, his “success” had delivered the worst inflation in 40 years and went on to cost Democrats the House. 

With the midterms looming, President Donald Trump and Republicans now find themselves with just 17 months to turn around the Biden economy and address the top voter issue, inflation — and time is not their friend. As almost every recent president has experienced, the consequences of losing the midterms can be dire, with the final two years of a presidential term handcuffed by the loss of the congressional majority. 

Every administration discovers that making real, permanent change takes time and legislation to solidify that change. Biden’s decision to overturn many of Trump’s policies only lasted until Trump returned to the Oval Office and overturned Biden’s policies himself four years later.  

The cost of losing the midterms in a presidency is a hard lesson learned by Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Biden. The jury is still out on Trump. In 2026, he faces another midterm election after losing the House in 2018, when a positive result expected by some in the GOP never materialized. 

Many Republicans were surprised by their losses because there had been a remarkable change in the attitude about the economy in the months leading up to the election. In 2016, the exit polls showed that only 36 percent of the electorate thought the economy was excellent or good. 

The 2018 exit polls showed that 68 percent of voters viewed the economy as excellent or good. Logic would dictate that this should have been a huge advantage for Republicans as the economy began to bounce back. Yet Democrats picked up 41 seats and easily regained the House majority. 

Despite a striking economic recovery, Trump and Republicans failed to make the economy the key issue in the election. In fact, they didn’t make it the No. 2 issue in the election. In 2018, exit polls showed the top issue was health care, according to 41 percent of respondents, and Democrats won them by a 75-23 margin.

To a large degree, Trump’s decision to focus on immigration and the “caravans” coming to the southern border rather than the GOP’s positive economic record cost Republicans the House. Although the GOP’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was instrumental in reinvigorating the economy, Trump and Republicans talked immigration rather than tax cuts and low inflation. The final jobs report before the election was an enormous validation of Republican economic policies that the party gave short shrift to over the last weekend.

Even Democratic economists were extremely positive. Jared Bernstein, a former Obama and Biden economist, tweeted about the unemployment report, saying it was “Pretty much everything you could want in a monthly jobs report. Payroll gains way better than expected, nice pop in labor force participation, wage growth continues to strengthen, finally beating inflation (real gains!).” 

But Trump and Republicans stuck with immigration as their No. 1 issue, opening the door for Democrats to raise the specter of heath care instead, which they did effectively. 

In the 2016 exit polls, 52 percent of voters said the economy was the most important issue in deciding how to vote. Terrorism was second at 18 percent, and everything else was under 15 percent. Improving the economy was what voters wanted, and Republicans won the presidency, Senate and House. 

Biden won election in 2020 with the economy once again the top issue, this time as COVID-19 raged. Then, in the 2024 election, a majority coalition wanted to move beyond the Biden policies they blamed for their increasing economic woes. For these voters, it was all about inflation. 

In the upcoming midterm election, Trump and Republicans have a second chance at the ring when it comes to the economy, if … 

If they can put their economic growth policies into place with the “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill and get it done in time for voters to see real progress.   

And a second if …

If there is a partywide commitment to focus on the No. 1 issue, the economy, and actually make it the No. 1 issue in the election, so we don’t see a repeat of 2018. 

While Republicans face a myriad of internal and external challenges, they do enjoy one other advantage beyond their policies — and that is the Democrats’ apparent total ineptitude at saying or doing anything that is resonating with the electorate outside their base. 

Their current strategy appears to be the same losing approach they used in 2016 and 2024 — attack and blame Trump for everything from airline disasters to a Mexican Navy ship ramming the Brooklyn Bridge to destroying the world. Even in Democratic and media circles, there is concern about the lack of content and ideas coming from what seems to be a leaderless party. And if the poll numbers are right, the blame game isn’t working.

But there is one thing neither side should doubt: The electorate will deliver a verdict in November of next year. Will the majority side with Republicans because they dealt with inflation and got the economy going and wages rising again? Or will the majority decide that Republicans were more focused on base issues and Democrats might be a better alternative? 

Whether Republicans can solidify whatever legislative and administrative gains they make in the next few months will be decided in November 2026. So will the prospects for the final two years of the Trump presidency.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.