August 2025 couldn’t come sooner. It’s been one of the craziest, most combative six months Washington may have ever seen, and yet it’s also been one of the most productive. Now, as Congress heads home with the country’s economic future still uncertain, both parties have steep hills to climb ahead of them.

For Democrats, it’s a time to regroup and rethink what they stand for while they search for a reason for being. For Republicans, it’s also a critical time to fine-tune an effective economic message and sell the president’s “big, beautiful bill.” 

Meanwhile, the media is focused not on the issue that will decide next year’s congressional elections — the economy — but on the Epstein scandal, which has bizarrely reemerged to dominate political coverage over the past month. 

Some Republicans have been demanding that Trump’s DOJ release all relevant Epstein documents, stepping on their own economic messaging. Across the aisle, Democrats, having no real agenda, have jumped on the Epstein bandwagon, hoping to tie Trump to the sleazy scandal as a substitute for ideas in next year’s elections. 

Neither is a strategy to win over voters, but it gets the attention of much of the media, which too often judges the value of a news story not by its substance or importance but by its ability to get eyeballs and views. 

This is a lesson celebrity politicians and pundits have learned. The more outrageous their statements, the more media attention they get — and the more money they can raise. 

Which question is more likely catnip for today’s media? “Another politician caught in the Epstein scandal?” or the admittedly drier, but far more important, “Did the personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index inflation rate edge closer to 2 percent?” 

File that as a rhetorical question.

Looking at recent headlines, I’m guessing the Gilded Age architects of yellow journalism would applaud their reportorial progeny. Nothing sells (or gets eyeballs) like sensationalism. Sadly, the sordid Epstein saga has become a cause célèbre, not just for the media, but for some Republicans and most Democrats, with each party base demanding “transparency” if not heads as they try to score political points.  

It’s not that the Epstein case isn’t news. It is, but it’s unlikely to be the deciding issue for most voters next year. The economy will be the determining factor, as it usually is. 

Topics like Epstein may be interesting to the 60 percent of voters who don’t define themselves as members of either party base (2024 exit polls: 16 percent liberal Democrat, 24 percent conservative Republican, 60 percent everyone else), but these are, fundamentally, economic voters. For them, “It’s the economy, stupid!” will determine their vote, not Epstein. 

For them, the question isn’t who partied on Epstein island. It’s “Can the private sector deliver the growth to improve the quality of life for all Americans?” For voters, what happens economically is what matters in their decision-making process. 

And this week, a lot is happening that will help answer whether the “big beautiful bill” and the administration’s trade policies will actually grow the economy and raise wages enough for average families to counteract Joe Biden’s disastrous inflation.  

On Wednesday morning the White House got good news as the Commerce Department released the second quarter GDP, which increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent, well above expectations. This comes after the economy contracted in the first quarter, 0.5 percent. The Federal Reserve was also set to announce its decision on interest rates later Wednesday. On Thursday, the PCE inflation rate will be reported, more key data used by the Fed. 

This Friday, the July jobs numbers will take center stage, along with weekly and hourly wages data. In June, weekly wages were up 1.6 percent since Trump took office, slightly outpacing the 1.5 percent increase in prices during that time. Hourly wages have increased 1.3 percent, still stubbornly below the inflation rate. 

With Trump critics continuing to warn of higher inflation from his tariff policies, the consumer price index inflation rate report on Aug. 12 will obviously be important, at least if it goes up, along with the producer price index scheduled for release two days later. The June CPI rate was up from 2.3 percent in April to 2.7 percent. This is still down from the 3.0 percent in Biden’s last month in January, but an increase in either index would be unwelcome news just as Republican congressional town halls get underway.

These are defining numbers for families trying to deal with the cost of living, and according to the most recent CBS News poll, 27 percent of voters think the economy is getting better, while 55 percent said it is getting worse. Among independents, it was 18 percent to 63 percent. Voters also want the White House to focus more on prices and less on tariffs. 

The biggest challenge facing Republicans is an electorate that, many surveys have shown, currently disapproves of the “big, beautiful bill.” Just as we saw in 2018, when voters didn’t understand what was in the original Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Republicans haven’t sold their signature legislation or explained convincingly what it will do for workers and families. In the CBS poll, 46 percent of independents thought their taxes will go up as a result of this bill. 

But as the August recess gets underway, Democrats have their own problems, big problems. Last week’s Wall Street Journal poll found Democrats’ favorability rating with voters had dropped to 33 percent favorable to 63 percent unfavorable, their lowest rating in 35 years. Terrible numbers. Republicans fared better, at 43 percent favorable to 54 percent unfavorable. 

While Republicans have a big sales job ahead of them, they do so having taken action to lower taxes, cut spending, lessen regulation and supercharge the country’s energy sector.  

Democrats go into August significantly underwater, weighed down with their focus on Epstein instead of ideas, an ideological split in the party and tagged with the never-ending gift of Zohran Mamdani dominating the news. Government-run grocery stores aren’t the answer to inflation or the Democrats’ prospects.

Growth and the overall increase in prices and wages under Trump will be key in the 2026 election. Clarifying what the “big, beautiful bill” does — and doesn’t — do and how it specifically addresses families’ cost of living is job one for Republicans this August. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.