Given the cascade of domestic and international events over the past few weeks, it’s almost hard to remember the drama and controversy that surrounded passage of the reconciliation package dubbed the Big Beautiful Bill Act. Almost.

I say that because one of its critical elements, the extension of the 2017 tax cuts for individuals, was then and remains today the most disputed, most misreported and most misunderstood. It will play a key role in defining how the electorate views the reconciliation bill. 

These across-the-board tax cuts were going to expire at the end of this year, and if that had happened, most people in the country would have seen their taxes go up. Yet sadly, a kind of cynicism has settled over many voters who remain unconvinced of almost anything they hear from politicians and the media these days.

Part of the problem today is that people didn’t believe the tax cuts back in 2017. 

Republicans and Trump passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, but failed to close the deal with voters who didn’t believe the broad-based cuts would apply to them.

In our 2018 postelection analysis, the Winston Group wrote: “More people believed the bill would not lower taxes for “people like them” 36-42 (will-will not). Voters believed the tax cut bill reduced rates for corporations and the wealthy (67-17 believe-do not believe) but not that it would reduce rates for everyone (32-50 believe-not believe). Independents were less likely to believe it reduced rates for everyone (27-51).” 

Our analysis continued: “Clearly, the electorate was not aware of the basic elements of the bill, and naturally as a result, were unaware of the potential benefits at risk. So, when Republicans said Democrats were going to take away their tax cut, only one-third of the electorate thought they had something to lose. … If a majority of voters had understood that the tax cut bill was going to lower taxes for them, this would have decisively helped Republicans. Those people who said it would lower their taxes voted Republican 73-26.”

When it comes to voters’ awareness of the 2017 tax cuts and how the BBB will help them personally, not much has changed. 

In our recent Winning the Issues Survey (8/30–9/1, 1,000 registered voters), we found that overall, only 33 percent believe the BBB would prevent a tax increase on themselves and their families, while 48 percent said it would not. 

Even among Republicans, less than half (48 percent) thought the BBB would prevent a tax increase on them. Thirty percent of independents felt the same. A central focus of the bill was to protect the 2017 tax cuts that most taxpayers enjoyed, yet only a third of voters thought it did. 

How important was this belief to whether a voter favored or opposed the bill? It was the key determinant in winning support for the BBB. Of those who thought it prevented a tax increase, 74 percent favored the bill, while 22 percent opposed. Among those who did not think it would prevent a tax increase, only 24 percent favored the bill, while 72 percent opposed. Nearly a mirror opposite. 

Taking this a step further, among those who said it would not prevent a tax increase, 76 percent believed the bill gave huge new tax breaks to billionaires. This reflects the lack of engagement by supporters of the bill with the electorate as to what the 2017 tax cuts did for taxpayers in the first place and why the cuts needed to be made permanent now. 

Democrats have been successful in consistently spinning a message anchored in the mistaken idea that the only winners in the 2017 tax legislation and this year’s BBB are the rich and big business. Nothing could be further from the truth. But the bill’s supporters, thinking mission accomplished, have moved on to other things and are now learning that you can’t win an argument you don’t make.

In contrast, Democrats have been much more relentless, arguing successfully for “Obamacare” in the 15 years since its passage. Republicans never effectively made the argument back in 2018 for the positive individual impact of the TCJA, and now are trying to find a message to overcome current negative public opinion. 

So how do they do that? Not through hyperbole or assertions that voters just don’t believe. Republicans are fortunate that Democratic hyperbole has led to a lack of belief of Democratic statements on a variety of issues. 

What this argument needs are some nonpartisan numbers. The Congressional Budget Office has data that helps taxpayers get a clearer picture. People can find a spreadsheet on their website from January that lays out the baseline for tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates prior to the passage of the BBB. 

In looking at this spreadsheet, under the tax parameters tab, the comparison is between 2025, the last year of the TCJA being in effect, and 2026, the return to the 2017 deductions and tax rates, if the bill had not been passed. This spreadsheet clearly shows an increase in tax rates and the cut in the standard deduction across the board. 

Given that about 90 percent of taxpayers use the standard deduction (they don’t itemize their deductions when filing their tax returns), this cut in the deduction alone exposes significantly more individual income to higher taxes. 

The spreadsheet can help anyone who uses the standard deduction calculate the difference between what they pay in taxes based on current income versus what they would have paid had the bill not passed. 

The challenge for Republicans is to get voters to work through their own situations to see the difference. Overall, without the BBB, a family at the median household income level would have had to pay $1,695 more in taxes.  

For Republicans, hyperbole isn’t going to fix the problem, nor is simply attacking Democrats. Math is. And the CBO numbers prove their case. 

It’s a fairly simple argument. The 2017 tax cuts gave almost every working American a significant tax cut. No extension meant higher taxes for virtually every taxpayer. 

Voters need a better understanding of exactly how and what the BBB does for them and what it would have cost them without it.

It’s up to Republicans to close the deal.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.