Government shutdowns never produce good outcomes for the country, and rarely for either political party, for that matter. Still, the logic that leads up to this habitual exercise in futility is always fascinating to watch.

Typically, it begins with one party believing that somehow shutting down the government will gain them a political advantage that never effectively materializes. In fact, both sides usually lose. It’s more a question of which side loses the most, because the electorate sees shutdowns as a failure to govern, especially voters in the political center who expect their representatives, Republicans or Democrats, to do their job. 

With the government partially shut down as of this morning, the battle is officially engaged, this time over a continuing resolution passed by the Republican House but held up by Democrats in the Senate. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson are arguing for a clean extension — meaning a vote to continue funding at existing levels and provide time for negotiations to get to an acceptable conclusion through regular order. 

The two Democratic leaders, however, are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. The progressive base of their party isn’t looking for a procedural skirmish. It wants a full-blown battle with President Donald Trump, demanding a return to Biden administration policies in exchange for keeping the government operating. 

Their long list of demands amounts to hundreds of billions in added spending to restore Democratic priorities. Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., finds himself trying to operate in the aftermath of last spring, when many Democrats criticized the minority leader for caving to Republicans on a continuing resolution to keep the government open. 

Over the weekend, Thune said some of the Democratic proposals were important to discuss, noting Schumer’s focus on the pandemic-era premium subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. Democrats passed huge subsidy increases as a response to the coronavirus and did it without a single Republican vote in 2021, as part of the American Rescue Plan. 

Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also want Republicans to reverse what they call “cuts” in Medicaid spending passed in the reconciliation bill this summer, as well as restore funding for NPR, PBS and USAID. A Winston Group analysis of Congressional Budget Office numbers showed Medicaid funding under the Big Beautiful Bill will actually go up 30.3 percent by 2034 (from 2024). Factoring in inflation, the bill still increases the program’s budget by 6.1 percent.

Although Thune indicated he saw the issue of ACA subsidies needing an in-depth discussion, he said it wasn’t possible in the next few hours, and a seven-week CR could provide the time. Thune also noted that there were many times under President Joe Biden and the Democrats when Senate Republicans voted for a clean continuing resolution to keep the government open. 

After Monday’s meeting with the president, Schumer complained, “Their bill has not one iota of Democratic input. That is never how we’ve done this before.” The Affordable Care Act (2010) and the American Rescue Plan (2021) passed with only Democratic votes, or as Schumer would put it, with not one iota of Republican input.

In the end, the Democratic leadership, especially Schumer, is clearly under pressure to fight for a perceived win of some sort against Trump. In recent days, progressive House Democrats haven’t been shy in calling out Schumer, who faces a revolt in the House Democratic Caucus and threats of Democratic Senate primaries as payback if he backs the CR. For now, Schumer seems inclined to take the risk of a shutdown.

With House Republicans having passed the CR and Thune and Senate Republicans ready to pass it, they are better positioned to engage voters who simply don’t like shutdowns and generally react with a “plague on both your houses.” 

Historical public opinion data from Winning the Issues research, which began in 1999, shows that the government shutdown in 2013 delivered the lowest point for voter attitude toward the direction of the country. In a survey done on Oct. 14–15, 2013, the results were 14-77 (right direction-wrong track). Among independents, it was 12-81. Both parties were underwater, with Republicans at 30-64 (favorable-unfavorable) and Democrats at 38-56. 

Today, with America waking up to a partial shutdown, both parties take the field with negative images. In the Sept. 26–29 Economist/YouGov survey, the favorable-unfavorable of the Democratic Party was 32-58, with the Republican Party at 36-55. 

Among independents, it was even worse for both, with Democrats at 20-61 favorable-unfavorable and Republicans at 23-60. Independents respond particularly negatively to shutdowns, and currently, 24 percent think the country is headed in the right direction, while 66 percent believe it is off on the wrong track. 

Independents, who vote based on issues and individual candidates, see partisan gridlock as the fault of both parties. They are an increasing portion of the electorate, and in the last election were a larger segment of the electorate than Democrats.

Independents are also economic voters. In terms of the economy, 59 percent believe it is getting worse, while only 11 percent say it is getting better, according to the Economist/YouGov survey. 

The two Democratic leaders, Schumer and Jeffries, are facing a tsunami of bad news, starting with the fact that 21 percent of Democrats have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. The 2024 election, based on exit polls, showed there were about 10 million fewer voters identifying as Democrats in contrast to 2020. On top of that, in the last two elections (2022 and 2024), Democrats hit historic lows in terms of party identification in the exit polls, with liberal Democrats making up only 16 percent of the electorate. 

So, the challenge for the two Democratic leaders now is how to satisfy their progressive party base, avoid primaries and recoup the voters they have lost, without alienating independents. 

Republicans go into the shutdown needing to prove they can handle the responsibility of governing, solve inflation and get the country back on the right track economically. And they need to get back into the business of winning independents, something they haven’t done since 2016, and is clearly reflected in the Republicans’ very small margin in the House. 

Both sides should remember voters hate government shutdowns.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.