Technically, Punxsutawney Phil emerges next week to predict an early spring or more grim winter. But for all practical purposes, Congress is once again facing its own version of Groundhog Day — the possibility of yet another partial government shutdown at the end of this week.  

We’ve all been here before. Despite partisan differences, it appeared that Senate negotiators had reached general agreement on a funding bills package moving forward. But recent events in Minneapolis involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement have led many Democrats to threaten to pull their support for Homeland Security funding, currently part of the overall agreement.  

What Democrats want remains unclear. But if no agreement can be reached before Sunday, they may well throw the dice and risk another significant partial shutdown that would impact far more than ICE or even DHS. Is that a bet worth making for Democrats, given the outcome of their last foray into shutdown politics?

Democrats didn’t come out favorably after the last shutdown, which centered on the specific issue of extending the temporary enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, which was itself viewed somewhat positively by the public. Democrats were also helped by the lack of a Republican health care alternative, a constant dynamic in the health care policy debate. 

But Democrats hit a wall with their decision to prevent a vote to keep the government from shutting down with an unpopular filibuster. The issue for voters then became the impact of a federal shutdown rather than extension of the temporary enhanced ACA tax credits.  

This shouldn’t have come as a surprise to Democrats. The electorate usually has a very negative reaction to government shutdowns and wants a quick end to what they see as a failure to govern. When Democrats shut down the government last fall, the Nov. 15-17 Winning the Issues survey found 51 percent of the electorate approved of passing legislation to open the government, while 24 percent opposed it. Only 17 percent thought the shutdown was worth it, while 67 percent said it was not worth it, with 71 percent of people saying it had a serious impact on the U.S. economy. 

In terms of how the shutdown was handled, neither party did well. For Republicans, 34 percent approved of how they handled it, while 56 percent disapproved. This was slightly better than Democrats, who were at 27-56. Among independents, it was even worse for both parties, again with Republicans not doing as badly — 25-60 percent for Republicans, 20-62 percent for Democrats. 

So where are the two parties now in terms of the brand image in contrast to prior to the shutdown? Contrasting the August WTI survey with the recent January survey (Jan. 8-12), Republicans in Congress went from 39-56 (favorable-unfavorable) in August to 41-53 in January. 

Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress went from 41-51 to 38-56. In the WTI surveys done since the 2024 election, this is the first time Democrats’ brand image is clearly worse than the Republicans’. However, both parties still have a majority of the electorate having an unfavorable view of them. 

In the January WTI survey, the electorate was asked, “For either party, is shutting down the government an appropriate legislative strategy?” The result was very one-sided, with only 17 percent saying yes and 72 percent saying no. This reflects the electorate’s view that when the discussion becomes about shutting down the government, whatever issue precipitated that becomes secondary to a shutdown or the possibility of it. 

That brings us to the current situation. The fatal shooting of Alex Pretti (preceded by the fatal shooting of Renee Good) has changed the discussion around current ICE objectives and procedures. Along with many Democrats, there have been numerous congressional Republicans who have asked for a thorough, in-depth understanding of both shootings. President Donald Trump has taken steps to change the leadership and direction of ICE in Minneapolis by putting longtime ICE official Tom Homan in charge to redefine objectives and doctrine.

Over the weekend, Democrats began to threaten a significant partial government shutdown, demanding that DHS funding be separated from the multi-department funding bill, which is problematic for Republicans and would create an even more complicated situation. One problem is logistics. House members are currently not in Washington after passing the original comprehensive funding bill.  

The first hurdle is whether House members can get back in time to actually pass just five funding bills — among them Defense, Labor-HHS-Education and Transportation-HUD — assuming there is a majority to pass anything without DHS funding. 

Meanwhile, what happens to the funding of other critical DHS departments, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, currently dealing with the impact of the recent snowstorm that hit millions of Americans, as well as the Transportation Security Administration, the Coast Guard and the Secret Service?  

What has been left out of much of the debate is the fact that ICE was already given enough funding to last them for several years with passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill last year. In other words, the Democrats’ threat to cut ICE funding by holding up DHS appropriations is more show than policy solution.  

Last fall, the shutdown debate was over a policy that every Republican voted against twice — the temporary enhanced ACA tax credits. In that situation, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer asked Republicans to vote for a policy they had never supported and at the time had been excluded from policy discussions dealing with it. 

Both congressional Republicans and Democrats have expressed bipartisan concerns over what evolved in Minneapolis over the past two weeks. The president took action Monday to try and resolve the situation with the Homan decision and calls with Minnesota leaders.  

Introducing the issue of shutting down the government now to make a political point only muddies the water, rather than joining forces to find a solution that ensures the safety of both communities and law enforcement. The Senate should pass the funding bills in total and keep the government open.  

Then both sides should seriously engage in a thorough review of ICE and sanctuary policies in order to rebuild trust in the agency — and preserve historic federal and state roles and responsibilities for both immigration and public safety.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.