The past two weeks have been a roller coaster of bad news, good news and some unforced errors that together have created an even more challenging environment for the president and congressional Republicans this fall. Here’s a short recap of how it went.

First, at the end of January, Republicans were stunned when a longtime GOP state Senate seat in Texas went blue in a special election. That should have raised eyebrows, and it did. 

The next day, President Donald Trump announced a two-year closure of the Kennedy Center for a complete renovation, sending Democrats and the media into a torrent of criticism.

Last Monday, Trump proposed nationalizing elections just as the debate on the SAVE Act, designed to ensure the integrity of elections, heated up, giving Democrats a new line of attack.

Last Tuesday, the president signed legislation to end the partial government shutdown — a positive for the White House that got lost in the uproar over his comments on nationalizing elections. 

On Thursday, the president rolled out a new prescription drug program in prime time, TrumpRx, to help bring down the cost of some of the country’s most often prescribed drugs. This is exactly the kind of economic policy that people want to address the crucial affordability issue. 

But before the night was over, the president’s Truth Social account posted a video on election integrity that closed with an offensive clip featuring the Obamas as apes. The video drew sharp reactions from Republicans on the Hill, including Sens. Tim Scott, Roger Wicker and Susan Collins and Rep. Mike Lawler. 

TrumpRx was overwhelmed by the justifiable outrage over the post, which the president took down several hours later, but the damage was done.

On Friday, there was more good economic news when the Dow hit a record high of 50,000. But it, too, got lost in the negative coverage of a supposed conversation between Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in which the president allegedly offered to restart funding of the Gateway Tunnel project in New York City if Schumer would support renaming Penn Station in New York and Dulles Airport in Virginia after Trump. 

The president’s rocky week was also weighed down by more bad survey numbers in terms of his job approval, especially among independents. 

Now for some detail. The loss of State Senate District 9 in Texas was a flashing red light for Republicans. In a district that voted for the previous Republican state senator, Kelly Hancock, by a margin of 20 points, Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s 14-point win over Republican Leigh Wambsganss means the GOP candidate underperformed Hancock by 34 points. 

At the state legislative level, Republicans have now lost eight solid Republican seats in special elections, while not picking up any Democratic seats. Some of these races exhibited similar negative margins in terms of underperforming the previous Republican incumbent. However, the Texas race was one of the widest margins and came after an effort by Trump to get GOP voters to the polls and despite Wambsganss significantly outspending Rehmet. 

In the Georgia special election for state House District 121, the Republican candidate underperformed their predecessor by 24 points and lost the seat. In the Iowa State Senate 1st District special election, the Republican candidate underperformed their predecessor by 21 points and lost, while in the special for the 35th State Senate District, the losing Republican candidate underperformed their predecessor by 26 points. 

At the federal level, the Republican candidate in the Tennessee special congressional election won, but underperformed Trump’s 2024 vote by 13 points. All these results would seem to indicate that this is more than simply a turnout problem.

Some argue the problem is that Trump is not on the ballot. But in fact, the policies and performance of most presidents are on the ballot in their first midterm elections. Four of the last five presidents have lost the House majority in those elections. 

Trump is now in the unusual situation of winning a nonconsecutive second term and having a majority in the House for a second time, after having lost a majority in his first term. However, he still faces the same challenge of holding a majority in the House. Just before the 2018 election, Trump focused on immigration, letting the Democrats make health care, not the economy, the top issue. 

But like Trump’s first term, this is going to be about whether he has effectively addressed the issue that voters elected him to fix — inflation and the economy. So, in essence, he is on the ballot, or at least his performance will be. 

This is the reason why presidential job approval matters so much in the midterms. It takes a delicate balance for candidates to manage the base that nominated them, while developing a majority coalition to elect them. To keep the majority, the GOP has to do better with independents. 

The RealClear Politics Trump Presidential Job Approval now stands at 42 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove. Among independents, his job approval is 27 percent approve to 61 percent disapprove in the latest Economist/YouGov poll; 31-58 in the latest Quinnipiac; and 33-60 for Morning Consult.

But the midterms for Republicans are further complicated by the non-economic messages coming from the White House, which account for his poor showing with independents. Trump has a good and getting better economic story to tell if he will just tell it. 

The innovative Trump Accounts program to, as he puts it, “jumpstart the American dream” and his new prescription drug program to lower costs are exactly the kind of policy efforts that will help people economically in the short and long term. 

But the White House messaging of late has simply overwhelmed what is a growing list of economic accomplishments by the president and congressional Republicans. Crass videos, unconstitutional election proposals and what seems to many voters to be a focus on the personal rather than the people isn’t going to win elections this November.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said it best last week: “We’ve got to up our game and make sure that we’re doing everything to give people, particularly voters in the middle of the electorate who decide these types of elections, a reason to vote for our candidates.” He went on: “And I think we’ve got a record of accomplishment to run on, which needs to be communicated better.” 

He could use some help in doing that. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.