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Trump’s economic progress report to the country — and what’s next

He has to keep closing the gap between wages and prices that developed under Biden

President Donald Trump applauds during Tuesday night’s State of the Union. The speech kicked off his economic message ahead of the midterms, Winston writes.
President Donald Trump applauds during Tuesday night’s State of the Union. The speech kicked off his economic message ahead of the midterms, Winston writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Reconciling improving inflation stats to the real-world buying experiences of American consumers has proven to be a challenge for this White House, but Tuesday night marked a welcome change, as President Donald Trump kicked off his 2026 midterm economic argument to voters. 

It was the first step in a long-term case he needs to prove. The economic data of the past few months has generated more questions than answers as we wait for more reporting. People are just as confused as the economists, wondering if the glass is half empty or half full. 

Is the poor job growth in the last half of 2025 why we saw low GDP growth in the last quarter, or was the higher third-quarter growth a precursor to the positive January jobs report? And why have some kitchen table goods and services remained stubbornly high?

Trump’s State of the Union speech this week needed to achieve two objectives. First, it had to give voters some context on the state of the economy, the policies his administration has put into place to fix it and new initiatives he is proposing to further address Americans’ ongoing economic challenges.

The second objective was to deliver a positive, uplifting speech that might begin to turn around not just people’s view of the economy, but their approval or disapproval of the job he is doing as president to address their concerns, specifically the cost of living. 

When people feel better about the country, they generally will also feel better about the people leading it. Makes sense.

The electorate’s focus on the economy over the last year has been clear. A CBS News poll (Feb. 20-23), done just prior to the speech, found this was far and away the topic people wanted to hear about in the State of the Union. In fact, nearly 7 in 10 said they specifically wanted the president to discuss the “cost of living and prices,” followed by 62 percent who wanted to hear about “the U.S. economy generally.” 

The challenge for the president and his speechwriters was to take what has been months of conflicting economic data and give voters a true picture of where the country is now and likely to head into the coming year. In their defense, the data can lead to differing conclusions.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report showed that 130,000 jobs were created in January; and in the third quarter of last year, Gross Domestic Product increased 4.4 percent. Good news on both fronts.

However, only 19,000 jobs were created over the last six months of 2025, and the first GDP report for the fourth quarter of last year showed a disappointing 1.4 percent growth, although some economists have attributed some of that drop to the government shutdown. 

In terms of wages and prices, there has been improvement. When President Joe Biden left office, prices had outpaced wages by 4.8 percent over the course of his presidency. That was the “stagnant” economy, as Trump put it, handed to Republicans. The most recent BLS report showed that the price versus wages margin since January 2021 has been reduced to 2.6 percent — solid progress, but a job still in process. 

Driving that improvement has been the drop in gas prices, but grocery and utility prices are still problematic. Meats have gone up 9.2 percent, and electricity 6.3 percent, since last January. Inflationary pressures are still a key challenge for most Americans. 

This is a continuing aftereffect of Biden policies, but blaming him is not what the electorate is looking for; solving it is. Voters, particularly independents, are still looking for the economy to be fixed, and when it comes to a grade, they give the president the equivalent of an incomplete.

His SOTU smartly focused on the significant reduction in gas prices, which has had a positive impact on the electorate’s view of the economy. And he acknowledged there was still work to be done on inflation, especially meat prices, asking people for patience.  

He used this huge platform to give people a better understanding of the “Big Beautiful Bill” passed last summer, outlining its tax cuts on tips, overtime pay and Social Security, along with preventing tax increases. The president also pointed to the “Trump accounts” designed to put the newest generation on a solid financial footing, the record-setting stock market that strengthens the pensions and IRAs of millions of Americans, and falling mortgage rates, so important for a lagging real estate market. He also reiterated his support for tariffs.

Was it enough to change his struggling job approval? Probably not, but for Republicans, the president’s focus on the economy early in the speech was a welcome moment. But the critical element in terms of the economy is whether the policies that have been put in place can continue to close the gap between wages and prices that developed under Biden. 

Clearly, there is significant economic ground that Trump needs to make up with the electorate. The RCP average for his Economic Job Approval is 41 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove. But if Trump has difficult numbers in the CBS News poll, so do the Democrats, as 37 percent of adults had a favorable view of them while 63 percent had an unfavorable one. 

Democrats had objectives Tuesday night, too. But by sitting on their hands for some of the evening’s most emotional moments, they did little to help themselves. 

Most memorable was Trump’s challenge to stand if they believed “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Nearly every Democrat sat glumly as Republicans cheered.

The president’s focus throughout the speech on extraordinary Americans and their achievements was an uplifting experience that the country sorely needed. Whether it was the U.S. hockey team, a mother unwilling to give up hope for her injured son, or two remarkable men being awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor for their bravery under fire, all those and more were examples of the best this country produces and a reminder of who we are as a people. 

In the end, Trump’s storytelling gave this speech a different standing, a welcome reminder, in this anniversary year, of American exceptionalism.

Whether the speech will change minds about his policies remains to be seen, but it was a feel-good moment for everyone willing to put partisanship aside and remember what binds us together as Americans.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.

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