Independent voters’ skepticism of Donald Trump’s baseless claims about the 2020 presidential race and his contention that American elections are not secure are contributing to a broader trend of the key voting bloc abandoning the president ahead of November’s midterms.

Multiple polls conducted in recent weeks show independents continue to be frustrated by Trump’s job performance and skeptical of his “rigged” 2020 election claims.

The day he took his second oath of office, YouGov’s weekly tracker put his favorable rating at 40.7 percent among independents, with an unfavorable level of 56.3 percent. As of the most recent incarnation of the poll, released July 13, the voting bloc had a 28.7 percent favorable rating and a 69.3 unfavorable level.

More than half (59 percent) of independents said they were either “very confident” or “somewhat confident” that the congressional elections in four months will be fair, according to a survey conducted last month by YouGov and The Economist. 

The same poll asked participants if they believed the president has “concrete evidence” to back up his 2020 claims or whether he was merely attempting to “sow doubt.” Among independents, 77 percent said he was trying to plant doubts in voters minds; that compares to 72 percent of Republicans who said he had hard evidence. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released last week found 26 percent of independents approved of his job performance. That included 6 percent who strongly approved and an eyebrow-raising 71 percent who disapproved. 

Such numbers raise questions about presidential coattails as the midterms heat up.

CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten said on the air Monday that “Donald John Trump is in fact holding the record for the lowest net approval rating for a president in a second term, at this point in the second term of any president in the 21st century.”

“What is driving this number? It’s independents, baby,” he added. “He takes the cake at minus 45 [percentage] points among independents, even worse than Richard Milhous Nixon, who was about to leave office because of Watergate, who had previously held the record at minus 37 [percentage] points, and the aforementioned George W. Bush at minus 31 [percentage] points. Donald John Trump, the worst ever … net approval rating with independents, at this point in a second term.”

But Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday told reporters that the president was stressing “basic stuff” and Trump’s allegations should “concern every American.” 

The president on Thursday night, during an unprecedented primetime address from the White House, appeared to be offering red meat to his “Make America Great Again” base. During his first term, he tended to revert back to immigration and the U.S-Mexican border. But increasingly during this term, his messaging returns to the 2020 election and his unproven claims of widespread voting fraud.

‘Continue to hammer this’

Trump used the address to, in part, warn about “cyber vulnerabilities in our electronic voting systems,” calling those alleged weak points “bad.”

“We’re in the process of informing governors, senators and members of Congress of potential issues in their states. If you look at voting today, it’s in such bad shape in so many states, and we are committing to fix it and we’re also committing to be working with those states and local jurisdictions to help them fix and patch known technical vulnerabilities before the midterm elections,” he said. “We have very important elections coming up. We want those elections to be honest.”

Johnson credited Trump with “showing you the receipts,” adding: “We’ll continue to hammer this” going into the midterms because “in my mind, there’s almost nothing more important than this.”

Still, Trump’s message Thursday night did not seem calibrated for the independent voters that pollsters say will help decide House and Senate control. A number of Democratic lawmakers quickly warned that Trump appeared eager to cast doubt over the midterms, and possibly order actions intended to disqualify some ballots or voters.

In a twist, the only voting fraud allegations he made during the Thursday night address would have happened during his first presidential term. Undermining Trump’s “rigged” election claims are his two victories, which happened while Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden occupied the Oval Office. 

House Homeland Security Committee ranking member Bennie Thompson said in a Thursday night statement that Democrats “will not allow any speech, any executive order, or conspiracy to be used as an excuse for him to take over Federal elections,” adding: “The President has no Constitutional role when it comes to elections and he never will.”

“To persist in Trump’s delusions and fantasies is not just humiliating and beneath the office of the presidency, it is dangerous to our elections and our democracy,” the Mississippi Democrat added. “Congress cannot cow to this pathetic spectacle of a wannabe dictator. We must put the President in check, support State and local election officials this fall, and get back to the work of making life better for the American people.”

Stephen Richer, an analyst at the CATO Institute, noted in a Friday analysis that “ever since Trump entered politics, he has alleged stolen elections.”

“He claimed widespread fraud when he lost to Ted Cruz in the 2016 Iowa caucus. He claimed fraud in his 2016 victory against Hillary Clinton. And he of course claimed massive fraud in the 2020 presidential election,” Richer added. “He promised proof. His speech didn’t deliver that proof. And the documents released by the White House? They didn’t help his case.”