Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

By Niels Lesniewski, Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari

With momentum on their side less than a month out from Election Day, Democrats are turning to their top surrogate to help them make the close. 

Democratic candidates across the country released endorsement videos Thursday from Barack Obama as the former president gets more active in the final weeks of the 2026 midterms.

The first batch of direct-to-camera appeals includes one for Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, in which Obama says ahead of early voting, “Civil Rights heroes marched and even died to secure your right to vote. So use it.”

Troy Jackson, the Maine Democrat seeking to unseat longtime GOP incumbent Susan Collins, also got a boost from Obama.

“As Maine’s Senate president, he fought to raise wages, lower the cost of prescription drugs, and provide free lunch to every student in the state,” Obama says in a similar spot.

Other beneficiaries of Obama’s star power included gubernatorial nominees Keisha Lance Bottoms of Georgia, Deb Haaland of New Mexico and David Crowley of Wisconsin, who all rolled out endorsement videos Thursday.

It’s not that Obama hasn’t weighed on the midterms before. He recorded an endorsement video for Iowa Senate nominee Josh Turek earlier this summer. He also appeared at an event in Texas in May with Senate nominee James Talarico and gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa. 

But it’s clear that Obama, who is no stranger to the kind of midterm wave that can work against a president’s party (hello, 2010 and 2014), will be more active down the stretch.

As we reported Monday, the 44th president is set to return to the campaign trail later this month, headlining a rally in battleground Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers for an open Senate seat. 

And more endorsement videos are on the way. The Associated Press reported that Obama has cut two dozen ads for Democratic candidates for governor and Senate, and additional campaign stops are also anticipated.

Starting gate

#PA10: Janelle Stelson, the Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Scott Perry in a battleground Central Pennsylvania seat, has denied a claim by the Department of Homeland Security that her campaign had hired an undocumented immigrant who recently pleaded guilty to a disorderly conduct charge.

Crypto cash: Fairshake, the crypto industry PAC, is dropping $1 million each to support six House lawmakers — three Republicans and three Democrats — as part of a bipartisan spending effort that encompasses 32 campaigns in total, our colleague Mark Schoeff Jr. reports.

Ad wars: The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to step into a lower court dispute over television advertising rates paid by political candidates and joint fundraising committees, Roll Call’s Michael Macagnone reports. 

Take it slow: Departing Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, who lost her June primary to a democratic socialist, cautions progressives coming to Congress not to pursue a premature and overly ambitious health care agenda right off the bat. “All of these radicals who are coming to the House, thinking they’re going to be able to pass a very broad bill like Medicare-for-All right away, they’re going to run into a brick wall immediately,” DeGette told our colleague Lia DeGroot.

Padding the margins? House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries asserted this week that Democrats would gain the majority by winning key swing districts and boost their margins by picking up seats in Republican-leaning territory. Reflecting the party’s renewed confidence, the DCCC has added six more candidates to its ‘‘Red to Blue’’ program for top recruits: Chris Jones in Arkansas’ 2nd District, Dwayne Romero in Colorado’s 3rd, Eliott Rodriguez in Florida’s 27th, Teresa Benitez-Thompson in Nevada’s 2nd, Blake Gendebien in New York’s 21st and Justin Pearson in Tennessee’s 9th. 

Hastert dead: J. Dennis Hastert, whose legacy as the longest-serving House Republican speaker was eclipsed by subsequent revelations that he had abused underage boys as a high school teacher and wrestling coach, died over the weekend aged 84. Our colleague Nick Eskow details Hastert’s career as well as the abuse charges he admitted to.

ICYMI

#TXSEN: NFL fans across the country were treated to Texas Senate ads on Sunday, including a direct-to-camera spot featuring Angela Paxton, the estranged wife of Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton. As KARE 11 in Minnesota explained, it is now less expensive to make national ad buys during certain NFL and college football games than to blanket Texas media markets.

Drip, drip, drip, drip: Leaks from a closed-door meeting Paxton had with lobbyists and donors last month continue to drop. According to audio obtained by The Texas Tribune, Paxton suggested he would back cuts to federal benefits programs as a way to reduce the deficit. Earlier leaks revealed Paxton fretting over the political impact of the Iran war and rising gas prices, griping that D.C. insiders were running his campaign and voicing concerns that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas hurt him politically.

#MISEN: Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin hit the campaign trail with fellow Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for the first time over the weekend weekend. The pair told MS NOW in a joint interview that their different religions (Slotkin is Jewish, while El-Sayed is Muslim) and approaches to foreign policy could be beneficial if they serve in the Senate together. 

Money machine: Speaker Mike Johnson announced Thursday that he raised $30 million for House Republicans in the third quarter, bringing his total raised for the cycle to $156 million. Third-quarter fundraising reports, covering activity from July to September, are due next week, before Oct. 16. 

Eyes on 2028: Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego rolled out a lengthy set of policy proposals on labor, artificial intelligence and the economy at large Wednesday. In an interview with NBC News timed to the release, the Democrat conceded that he was “absolutely thinking about” a 2028 presidential run but cautioned that his family also needs to consider the demands of a campaign with young children.

Endorsements: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders issued a home-state endorsement Wednesday, backing Democrat Amanda Janoo in her challenge to Republican Gov. Phil Scott. Sanders, who notably did not publicly back Scott’s 2022 or 2024 Democratic opponents, said he liked the incumbent but it was “time for new leadership.” In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo won the backing of Clark County District Attorney Steve Wolfson, a Democrat. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had endorsed Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s bid for the state’s open Senate seat.

Nathan’s notes

Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales looks at how midterm battlegrounds have shifted since the start of the 2026 cycle, especially on the Senate side. Democrats started out with the Senate majority seemingly out of reach, but things look a lot different today, Nathan writes. 

What we’re reading

South Florida stress: Florida Rep. María Elvira Salazar drew criticism from Trump over her recent ad warning him that his immigration policies had left some Hispanic supporters feeling “betrayed.” But, as The New York Times reports, the episode underscored why Democrats hope they can flip her Miami-area district, which Trump carried by 15 points two years ago.

People of the Book: Several prominent Democrats, including  Rob Sand, a Bible-quoting Lutheran running for Iowa governor, and Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton, the senior pastor of the nation’s largest United Methodist church, are challenging the notion that religion has no place in an increasingly secular party. But Republicans are responding to these expressions of faith by attacking their legitimacy, according to The Contrarian.

Return to Red Cloud: Dan Osborn, the Nebraska independent running for Senate, apologized to residents of Red Cloud, over leaked remarks he made about the rural town on the Kansas border. The Nebraska Examiner reported on Osborn’s return last week — and the reaction he drew from townspeople.

Bucking the odds? The Nevada Independent recently profiled state Sen. Carrie Buck, a star GOP recruit looking to overcome a tough environment for her party and oust longtime Democratic Rep. Dina Titus from her Las Vegas-area seat. 

“Make Politics Sexy Again”: Former Black Hawk helicopter pilot Chris Gallant, a Democrat challenging Rep. Nick LaLota for a Long Island House seat, is leaning into the attention after photos surfaced of him modeling bondage gear for a San Francisco fetish brand more than a decade ago, The New York Times reports. 

The count: 78 percent

That’s the percentage of registered voters who said they’d already made up their minds on who to support in their House elections, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll. Just 9 percent suggested they could change their minds while another 9 percent were undecided. 

Democrats were more likely to be sure of their votes: 89 percent said their minds were made up, compared with 79 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of independents. 

The survey found similar responses in states that are holding Senate races this year. Eighty percent of voters said they had finalized their decisions on which Senate candidate to back, including 88 percent of Democrats, 84 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of independents. 

Key race: #CO05

Candidates: Republican Jeff Crank was first elected to Colorado’s 5th District two years ago, defeating an underfunded Democrat by 15 points. This time, the freshman lawmaker faces a tougher Democratic opponent in Army veteran and former congressional aide Jessica Killin.

Why it matters: The race in this red-leaning district has become more competitive in recent months, due to Killin’s fundraising strength and a national political environment that has grown more treacherous for the GOP. The DCCC added Killin to its “Red to Blue” program, which provides money and other resources to top recruits. And last month, Inside Elections shifted the race rating to Tilt Republican, a notch closer to Toss-up status, a reflection of Democrats’ renewed hopes in districts that, on paper, strongly favor Republicans.

Cash dash: Killin reported raising $3.1 million through June 30, while Crank hauled in $2.2 million over the same period. (Killin announced on Oct. 1 that she raised an additional $2.1 million during the third quarter that ended Sept. 30.) Outside groups are active in the race. AB PAC, the super PAC of the liberal opposition research group American Bridge, and House Majority PAC are funding ads and mailers opposing Crank, while No Going Back PAC, which is linked to Trump’s MAGA Inc., is spending on ads targeting Killin.

Backers: Crank has Trump’s endorsement, along with the support of House GOP leaders, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the political action arm of the National Rifle Association. Killin has the backing of Colorado Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, EMILY’s List and VoteVets.

What they’re saying: Crank and his GOP allies have painted Killin as a D.C. insider, noting her work as chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez and several other House Democrats. Killin has highlighted her military career while criticizing Crank for failing to block the Trump administration’s decision to relocate U.S. Space Command from Colorado Springs to Huntsville, Ala.

On Monday, Killin debuted a new ad featuring the family of Virginia Giuffre, one of the most prominent victims of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. In the ad, Giuffre’s brother and sister-in-law, who live in Colorado Springs, criticize Crank for failing to meet with them. (Crank said the spot was “intentionally vague” and accused Killin of preying on a grieving family.) Killin’s campaign also ran an ad that accused Crank of asking for a “special waiver for lobbyist gifts.” An investigation by KRDO13 found that it was a precautionary move made before his daughter’s wedding and Killin later acknowledged that she was “not suggesting that he ever broke rules.”

Terrain: Situated in the center of the state, the 5th District straddles Interstate 25 and includes Colorado Springs and its suburbs. The area has a large military presence, including the Fort Carson Army installation and the U.S. Air Force Academy. The district is also home to Focus on the Family, a Christian nonprofit organization founded by the late evangelical leader and staunch conservative James Dobson.

Wild card: The district has been held by Republicans since its creation in the early 1970s. But the area has trended bluer in recent years. Trump won it by 9 points in 2024, a steep drop from what would have been a 22-point margin in 2016 under the current lines, according to calculations by Inside Elections.

Coming up

Early voting is already underway in several states, including California, Ohio and Arizona, where the process kicked off this week. More states will follow next week, including several with key Senate races: Georgia (Tuesday) and Iowa and Kansas (Wednesday). 

Photo finish

Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.