ANALYSIS — Another week and another batch of races have shifted toward Democrats in the latest ratings by Inside Elections. 

With six weeks to go before Election Day, we’re still anticipating a typical midterm election in which the president’s party loses seats in Congress. The big question is how many seats?

It’s no surprise that Republicans are struggling in Democrat-leaning territory, such as Nebraska’s 2nd District, or in swing seats, such as Arizona’s 6th. But President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has sunk to a point at which Republicans are struggling to reassemble the coalition that got him elected in 2024 and even fighting to flip districts they drew for themselves to win. 

In North Carolina, Republicans targeted Democratic Rep. Don Davis for defeat in the 1st District, which transformed into a seat Trump would have carried by 12 points two years ago. But their nominee, Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, is having trouble putting him away. Inside Elections shifted the race rating from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, one category away from a Toss-up. Davis is likely benefiting from Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper’s strong Senate bid at the top of the ticket and Buckhout’s recent ban from Kalshi for betting on her own race. 

In Texas, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters has declined significantly, and Republicans are having to work to hold departing Sen. John Cornyn’s seat and the governorship. They’re also having trouble in redrawn House seats that would have been a general election formality for them under normal conditions. The race for the revamped 9th District, effectively the successor to Democratic Rep. Al Green’s seat, is now rated Likely Republican instead of Solid Republican. Republican nominee Alex Mealer has a huge financial advantage over Democrat Leticia Gutierrez, but the race is close. 

Overall, Republicans appear to be struggling in competitive open seats where they don’t have an incumbent with high name identification and a preexisting base to help survive the current political environment. For example, Inside Elections has changed the rating for Iowa’s 2nd District from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. The seat is open because GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson is running for the Senate. 

Along with Texas and Iowa, Florida is emerging as a headache for the GOP. Republican Rep. Byron Donalds appears to be having trouble putting away former Republican Rep. David Jolly, the Democratic nominee, in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. That rating shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. 

And ratings in a trio of House races in the Sunshine State have changed as well. The 14th District, redrawn by Republicans to defeat Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, went from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. The 16th District, where GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan is not running again, has joined the House battleground, moving from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. And the 27th District, represented by GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar, shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. South Florida is not looking as strong for Republicans compared with recent cycles, a dynamic Salazar appears to recognize with her recent campaign ad criticizing the Trump administration’s immigration policy.

But the most significant recent rating change might be in the Senate race in Maine. After trouncing her previous opponents, Republican incumbent Susan Collins earned the benefit of the doubt in her bid for a sixth term. But with about a month a half to go before Election Day, Inside Elections has shifted the race rating from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. This is the most difficult political environment Collins has faced, and Democrat Troy Jackson leads in most polling. While Collins has overperformed the polls in the past, it’s analytically dangerous to assume it will happen again.

And while it’s been a bumpy cycle for Maine’s outgoing governor, Democrat Janet Mills – with a failed Senate bid behind her – at least a Democratic ally has a solid shot at succeeding her in office. Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, the daughter of 1st District Rep. Chellie Pingree, is the clear favorite over Republican Bobby Charles. That race shifted from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. 

Here’s a summary of the latest race rating changes:

Moving toward Democrats

Maine Senate (Susan Collins, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

Colorado’s 5th District (Jeff Crank, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

Florida’s 14th District (Kathy Castor, D): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

Florida’s 16th District (Open; Vern Buchanan, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Florida 27th District (María Elvira Salazar, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Iowa’s 2nd District (Open; Ashley Hinson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

New York’s 19th District (Josh Riley, D): from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat

North Carolina’s 1st District (Don Davis, D): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

Texas’ 9th District (Open; Al Green, D): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Wisconsin’s 1st District (Bryan Steil, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Florida Governor (Open; Ron DeSantis, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Maine Governor (Open; Janet Mills, D): from Likely Democrat to Solid Democratic