NEW BERN, N.C. – In the race for control of Congress, Democrats have history and momentum on their side.

But there was no sense of panic among Republican loyalists at a recent campaign rally here in North Carolina’s Inner Banks, where a newly redrawn House seat represents one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities this year.

Like others in the crowd, Guy Gregg expressed confidence that Republicans will prevail, despite the fallout from soaring prices and an unpopular war.

“If you’re a politician, you’re always scared,’’ said Gregg, a former New Jersey state legislator who’s been active in local politics since moving here about six years ago. “If you’re not, you’re probably going to lose, so it’s good to be a little nervous.”

New Bern, a picturesque retirement spot known as the birthplace of Pepsi and the setting for the novel “The Notebook,” falls within red-leaning turf of Eastern North Carolina folded into the 1st District under the state’s new congressional map. By carving out rural counties in the heart of the state’s Black Belt, the Republican-controlled state legislature shifted the district from one that Donald Trump carried by 3 points in 2024 to one that would have backed him by 12.

Republicans are counting on the new map to help retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout defy the current political headwinds and become the first Republican to represent the district since 1883. Buckhout is seeking a rematch against Democratic Rep. Don Davis, who beat her by less than 2 points under the old district lines in 2024. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race a Toss-up.

The redrawn seat provides Buckhout with “a pretty significant structural advantage,” said Peter Francia, a political science professor at East Carolina University. “In a normal year, she would probably win.”

But Trump’s sinking poll numbers have scrambled the calculus and turned what was meant to be a likely Republican flip into a battleground race. Both sides have poured money into the contest, with outside groups dropping more than $20 million through mid-October. 

Framing the contest

Speaker Mike Johnson made a quick stop here Thursday to rally support for Buckhout – and convince any naysayers that Republicans will hold their House majority.

“I’m looking right into the camera and telling you the polls are wrong,’’ Johnson declared before several hundred people at a reception hall adjacent to the Neuse River. “If we turn out, we’re going to win.”

Buckhout, an Iraq War veteran, leaned on her military background while framing Davis and his fellow Democrats as champions of progressive causes and advocates for economic policies that tip into socialism.

“Remember how crazy it was when we had Democrats in charge?” she asked the audience. “We don’t want to go back to … open borders. We don’t want to go back to having all these tax advantages we have right now … rolled back and disappear. Crime will run rampant.”

A few hours earlier, Davis was outside a municipal building in New Bern’s historic downtown shaking hands with people lined up for the first day of in-person early voting. Even though this is new territory to him, many voters were familiar with the second-term Democrat.

Davis grew up on a tobacco farm in rural Snow Hill, some 50 miles west of New Bern. He graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy, served in the state Senate and is a Presbyterian lay minister.

“We’re traveling every mile of the district,’’ Davis said in an interview. “People are tired of all of the fussing, the fighting, the attacks.”

Tyler Scott, a 19-year-old first-time voter, said he’s not following politics closely but recognized Davis from the ads: “He seems like the right guy.’’

Asked about his opinion on Trump, Scott brought up rising prices and the federal immigration crackdown. 

“How are you supposed to get to work when the gas prices are so high?” said the teen, who is preparing to start college soon. “And everything that’s happened with [Immigration and Customs Enforcement], it’s just very sad.”

Davis has sought to walk a careful line in this socially conservative district, portraying himself as a centrist willing to occasionally cross party lines. He voted for an early iteration of Trump’s voting bill, now known as the SAVE America Act, and was one of eight Democrats to side with the GOP on a measure that would have required public schools to get parental consent before children could change their pronouns. A CQ Roll Call analysis of 2026 votes on which Trump’s position was publicly known found that Davis sided with the president nearly 70 percent of the time, second among Democrats only to Texas’ Henry Cuellar. 

“When you look at the makeup of this district, there are going to be Davis-Trump supporters,” the congressman said. And while Buckhout has Trump’s endorsement, “that doesn’t take away my ability to work with him over the next two years, just as I have over the last two years.” 

An acrimonious race

Buckhout said Davis’ moderation is a mask to cover for a more radical agenda. “He has a reputation as a nice guy,” she told the crowd at the rally. “So here’s what this nice guy did: He voted to keep the border open and to keep criminals pouring through it.”

The race has grown increasingly acrimonious. The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC, is running an ad highlighting Buckhout’s 2017 arrest in Georgia on a charge of driving under the influence of alcohol. (She pleaded guilty to reckless driving.) The spot also cites Buckhout’s recent fine and suspension by the prediction market Kalshi after she bet on her campaign.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House Republican super PAC, is airing an ad hitting Davis on transgender rights after he launched a commercial stating that the matter ought to be left to the states.

Jennifer Dacey, a Republican seeking reelection to Craven County school board, said cultural issues such as transgender rights motivate Republican voters while also pulling in moderates across party lines. 

“It’s just common sense,” she said, “and people across the aisle don’t want that kind of nonsense playing out either. This is a pretty culturally conservative area, and folks don’t want to be on the cutting edge of social democrat policy.”

Republicans said rallying the base was key to winning in this bellwether district, and many were looking ahead to Trump’s visit to Eastern North Carolina on Tuesday.  

Steve Stevenson, a member of the Carteret County GOP executive board, said he was fully supportive of the president’s agenda, including the war in Iran, though he felt “the timing could have been a little bit better” given the proximity to the midterm elections.

Gregg, the former New Jersey lawmaker, remained confident that Buckhout will come out ahead. 

“If there was a concern, the concern is always energy,” he said. “But we added a whole seat, and we designed the seat, so we damn well ought to win.”

Bill Clark and Ryan Kelly contributed to this report.