<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The <a shape="rect" href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/rob-quist-congressional-leadership-fund">special election for Montana’s at-large House seat</a> hasn’t received as much as attention as the race in Georgia, but it’s a similar storyline: Democrats are doing better than expected and an upset is within the realm of possibility.</span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">Less than a week before the Thursday, May 25, election, wealthy former software executive Greg Gianforte has a narrow advantage over his Democratic opponent, musician Rob Quist. But Quist recently crossed the $5 million fundraising threshold, giving him ample resources to deliver his message in the final days in a relatively cheap state for advertising. </span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">Strategists on both sides of the aisle agree that Gianforte won’t come close to President Donald Trump’s 20-point victory last fall. But there is some disagreement on exactly how far ahead Gianforte is at this point. </span></p><p class="p1">[<a shape="rect" href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/special-elections-time-trump"><em><strong>The Big Story: Special Elections in the Time of Trump</strong></em></a>]</p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">There isn’t enough evidence that the candidates are neck-and-neck to justify a Tossup rating, but there is enough uncertainty with special election turnout, and with previous special election races as a backdrop, for us to change our <a shape="rect" href="https://insideelections.com/">Inside Elections</a> rating of the Montana race <a shape="rect" href="https://data.rollcall.com/electionguide/">from Likely Republican to Tilts Republican</a>. </span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">In April, Republican <a shape="rect" class="memberLink" title="Click to view member info in a new window" href="https://data.rollcall.com/members/107922?rel=memberLink" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ron Estes</a> won a Kansas special election by 7 points in the 4th District, which Trump carried by 27 points last fall. </span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">You can read about more ratings changes and analysis on dozens of districts in the <a shape="rect" href="https://insideelections.com/edition/1/10">new May 19 issue of Inside Elections</a>.</span></p><div id="cqrcPostAdditional"></div>
