Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. A team of our Roll Call colleagues recently checked in with several of the 84 former members of the House and Senate who left their jobs during or at the end of the 118th Congress. Sure, some are now serving in a different chamber, while others ran or are running for other offices. But on the whole, it doesn’t sound like very many miss the chaos of Capitol Hill. With the annual August recess upon us, lawmakers are likely to take some time to consider whether or not they plan to seek another term. As Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales noted earlier this month, House retirements so far are at a low point compared with previous cycles. Most of the House members who’ve decided against reelection this year are running for either Senate or governor. Illinois Rep. Danny K. Davis became the latest exception to that list Thursday, when he announced his retirement plans after months of speculation around whether he’d seek a 16th term. The 83-year old endorsed state Rep. La Shawn K. Ford as his preferred successor in what’s shaping up to be a crowded primary in the heavily Democratic 7th District. Given the national conversation around public officials’ ages over the past year, there will be questions for older members about their abilities to keep seeking public office. But there will also often be unexpected retirement announcements from members who are ready for new chapters of their lives. While seven senators have announced their retirement plans, there are still some up for reelection next year who haven’t formalized their plans. Maine Sen. Susan Collins, the only Senate Republican representing a state won by Kamala Harris last year, has said she intends to run but hasn’t made her campaign official. South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds won an endorsement from Donald Trump last week but pointed out that he hasn’t launched a campaign. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst is expected to announce whether she’ll seek another term by the fall. More campaign announcements also seem likely to come in August. Alabama Rep. Barry Moore has teased a “BIG announcement” on Aug. 15 in a city far outside the Republican’s 1st District. Moore is seen as a potential Senate contender, with Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville vacating his seat to run for governor. Meanwhile, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn is eyeing her state’s open governor’s race next year and is expected to announce her next steps in August. Starting gate Cassidy’s challenge: Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a number of challenges should he go forward with his reelection bid next year, given his impeachment trial vote against President Donald Trump and the state’s new primary system, as our colleague Lia DeGroot explains. Cassidy recently drew another prominent primary challenger, with Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta joining the race Friday. #CAGOV: Former Vice President Kamala Harris will forgo a run for California governor, she said Wednesday. Meanwhile, her book “107 Days,” about her abbreviated and ultimately unsuccessful bid for the White House, is set to hit stores on Sept. 23. Redistricting wars: Texas Republicans released a new draft congressional map that would target Democrat-held seats in the state’s urban centers and the Rio Grande Valley, Roll Call’s Michael Macagnone reports. Before the map’s release, Mary Ellen and Daniela spoke on this week’s Political Theater podcast about Texas’ redistricting efforts and how Democrat-led states are responding. Cooper in, Nickel out: The race for North Carolina’s open Senate seat appears set, with former Gov. Roy Cooper announcing Monday that he’s running for the Democratic nomination. The next day, former Rep. Wiley Nickel dropped his bid and endorsed Cooper. Meanwhile, Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, who has already secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement, is expected to kick off his campaign Thursday afternoon, according to National Review. Collins in, King out: Georgia Rep. Mike Collins has launched a campaign to unseat vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, while fellow Republican John King, the state insurance commissioner, dropped his bid after concluding he had no path to victory. #SCGOV: South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman has joined the increasingly crowded Republican field to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster. A fellow House Republican, Nancy Mace, is also considering a run and is teasing a “major address on the future of South Carolina” for Monday. Tennessee special: The special election to succeed Republican former Rep. Mark E. Green in Tennessee’s 7th District will be held on Dec. 2, with primaries for both parties set for Oct. 7. A spotlight on age: Over the past 25 years, twice as many Democrats in Congress have died in office as their Republican counterparts, and a disproportionate number have been Black, our colleague Nick Eskow reports. Staffers turned lawmakers: Before he was elected as a Democrat in a Trump-supporting district, Maine Rep. Jared Golden was an aide to GOP Sen. Susan Collins, first on the Homeland Security Committee and then in her personal office. Golden told Roll Call’s Jackie Wang that he was once pulled over for running a red light in D.C. while trying to get Collins to the airport to catch a flight. And California GOP Rep. Young Kim spoke to our colleague Rachel Oswald about working for former House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce and how she has responded to the White House’s approach to foreign aid. ICYMI #SCSEN: The field of Republicans trying to challenge South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham in a primary grew larger this week with the entry of Paul Dans, the chief architect of the conservative Project 2025. Graham has already secured Trump’s endorsement as he bids for a fifth Senate term. Balancing her ticket: Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee for New Jersey governor this year, has picked Dale Caldwell, the president of Centenary University, as her running mate. A recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll showed Sherrill leading Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli 45 percent to 37 percent, with 16 percent undecided, a little over three months out from the election. Running it back: Former Michigan Rep. Mike Bishop said he is considering a House comeback, with an eye on the suburban Detroit seat that fellow Republican John James is vacating to run for governor. Bishop served two terms representing a Lansing-area district before losing to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2018. On Maggie’s List: Maggie’s List, which backs conservative women running for Congress, is endorsing four House Republican incumbents: Monica De La Cruz and Beth Van Duyne of Texas, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Lisa McClain of Michigan. More endorsements: The progressive Latino Victory Fund is backing four Latina Democratic candidates running in battleground House districts: Marlene Galán-Woods and JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona, Denise Powell in Nebraska and Carol Obando-Derstine in Pennsylvania. Blue on blue: In Connecticut, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin is opting not to move forward with an expected run for governor and instead has joined the race to challenge longtime Rep. John B. Larson in the 1st District Democratic primary. In neighboring New York, 26-year-old nonprofit founder Liam Elkind is primarying Rep. Jerrold Nadler, whom he asked to retire in a video announcing his campaign. And in Hawaii, state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole announced this week that he would challenge fellow Democrat Ed Case, who has faced criticism from progressives over certain votes in Congress. Guv roundup: Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez on Friday became the first prominent Democrat to launch a campaign to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers. The Democratic field is expected to grow, with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley saying he would be “taking steps toward entering the race for Governor.” In Nevada, state Attorney General Aaron Ford made his bid to challenge Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo official this week. In Tennessee, there’s speculation that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could run for governor, although he would face eligibility hurdles, NBC News reported. And in Alaska, the Republican primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy keeps growing, with state Sen. Shelley Hughes entering the race last week. Nathan’s notes Roll Call elections analyst Nathan Gonzales breaks down the initial 2026 Senate ratings by Inside Elections. Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina have Toss-up races on the board, while Maine is in the Tilt Republican column, based on the electoral track record of Sen. Susan Collins. In total, just eight out of the 35 Senate races on the ballot next year are currently rated as competitive. What we’re reading Downballot drag: Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who lost the 2022 race for governor, is considering another bid against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. But Politico reports that Trump’s political team is concerned that Mastriano’s presence at the top of the ticket could drag down Republican House candidates in the commonwealth. Proxy wars: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ efforts to go after a veteran state legislator may have backfired, CNN reports, with Trump picking the same lawmaker, state Sen. Joe Gruters, to be the next chair of the Republican National Committee. Spotlight on Crockett: The Atlantic profiles Jasmine Crockett, the social media-savvy Texas congresswoman whom the magazine describes as “a Democrat for the Trump era.” Comer for the commonwealth? The Lexington Herald-Leader sat down with House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman James R. Comer, who confirmed that he is laying the groundwork for a run for Kentucky governor in 2027. Dispatch from Biden World: Politico looks at the 46th president’s current life and finds him holed up in Delaware, working on his memoir with a new ghostwriter as he undergoes treatment for prostate cancer. The count: 49 cents That’s how much House Democrats in the most competitive of races are bringing home in appropriations earmarks, on average, for every dollar secured by Republicans in similarly tight contests. Of the 11 House races currently rated Toss-ups by Inside Elections, Republicans hold eight of those seats to three for Democrats. A total of $43 million is headed to the three Democrat-held districts (which works out to an average of $14.3 million), while appropriators have approved $235 million in project funding to the eight Republican districts (an average of $29.4 million). A CQ Roll Call analysis of House earmarks shows that this advantage extends beyond the Toss-up districts too, with the majority party netting 62 percent of the money overall. As it stands, with Republicans holding the slimmest of majorities in the House, any of these 11 districts could be a tipping point that determines control of the chamber next year. Inside Elections has so far not rated House races in Ohio, where the congressional map is scheduled for a GOP-led redraw this fall. Mid-decade redistricting in Texas also appears poised to imperil several Democratic incumbents. Those endangered Democrats would likely be hard-pressed to use ribbon-cuttings and big checks to curry favor with constituents: Texas Democrats net an average of $13.7 million in spending earmarks, while their Ohio counterparts are returning to their district with even less — an average of $13.3 million. Those slight hauls are headlined by that of Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, a target of the Texas redistricting plan, who was shut out of earmarks last year. He secured $1 million in approved project funding this year, finishing 389th out of 390 participating House members. — By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly Coming up Among the elections taking place on Tuesday is the nonpartisan primary for mayor of Detroit, where incumbent Mike Duggan is running for governor. The Motor City has never elected a female mayor, but that could change with Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield and Saunteel Jenkins, who formerly held that role, among the leading contenders. The top two finishers in Tuesday’s primary will advance to the November general election. Photo finish RNC Chair Michael Whatley, left, is hoping to join Speaker Mike Johnson in Congress, albeit from a different chamber. Above, the pair are seen during the 2024 Republican convention in Milwaukee. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
