Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. By the time next week’s version of this newsletter hits your inbox, we may be on the second day of a partial government shutdown, and President Donald Trump’s budget office is warning that the administration will pursue reductions in the size of the federal workforce, rather than just furloughing nonessential workers. Weekly jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 218,000, the Labor Department announced Thursday, coming in lower than forecast. But as Reuters reported, there are still concerns about a “lackluster demand for workers.” All this comes as polls show Trump underwater on the economy and as Democrats see high consumer costs as a winning issue for the party in next year’s midterm elections. “As millions of hardworking families struggle to keep up with skyrocketing grocery, utility, and health care costs, it’s not hard to understand why all the data shows the public is pissed and ready to reject Republicans in 2026 when Democrats retake the House majority,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement to At The Races. That’s not to say Republicans and their aligned groups aren’t citing what they see as positive news from their side. The American Action Network, which is the policy arm of the House GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, launched a $3.2 million advertising campaign highlighting the “no taxes on tips & overtime” provisions of the massive tax reconciliation law that Republicans enacted this summer. “Conservatives know hard-working Americans are the backbone of this country and they deserve to keep more of their money,” read a statement from AAN President Chris Winkelman. The most recent Associated Press-NORC survey, released Sept. 19, had 62 percent of Americans disapproving of the president’s handling of the economy and 60 percent saying he has gone too far in imposing new tariffs on other countries. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll from last week found 70 percent of Americans felt the president’s tariff policy was increasing prices. And while a plurality gave Republicans a small lead on the question of which party they trusted on the economy, a majority of poll respondents (53 percent) wanted Democrats to take control next Congress to serve as a check on the president’s power. Forty-two percent wanted to keep the GOP in charge “to support Trump’s agenda.” Starting gate Long road back: A few former members who left the House more than a decade ago are seeking comebacks in next year’s elections, including Illinois Democrat Melissa Bean, who lost reelection in the 2010 tea party wave. Grijalva elected in Arizona: There was little suspense Tuesday when Democrat Adelita Grijalva won the special election in Arizona’s 7th District to succeed her father, the late Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva. But, as Nick Eskow reports for Roll Call, the younger Grijalva is expected to provide the 218th signature on a discharge petition to bring legislation to the House floor calling for the disclosure of files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. D.C.’s delegate: Our colleague Justin Papp reports on the emerging Democratic primary for the District of Columbia’s nonvoting delegate in Congress as the longtime incumbent, Eleanor Holmes Norton, faces questions about her ability to do the job at age 88. #WIGOV: Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany is the latest House Republican to forgo a reelection bid next year, announcing this week that he will run for the state’s open governorship. Tiffany leaves behind a safe red seat in northwest Wisconsin, where he won a third full term last year by 27 points. Life after Congress: Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is the latest former House member profiled by Roll Call Managing Editor Jessica Wehrman for our “Life After Congress” series. Now a registered lobbyist, Ros-Lehtinen, who left the House in 2019 after nearly 30 years in office, still commutes between Miami and D.C. and isn’t jaded about her former career, saying, “Congress is fine.” Read more of Jessica’s updates on other ex-lawmakers: Illinois Democrat Glenn Poshard, North Dakota Democrat Earl Pomeroy and Oregon Democrat Peter A. DeFazio. ICYMI #NHSEN: New Hampshire state Sen. Dan Innis suspended his Senate bid Thursday and said he is “joining the campaign to draft” Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu into the race. Innis also called on former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown to drop out of the GOP primary and support Sununu. #VASEN: Virginia state Sen. Bryce Reeves will run for Senate, becoming the second Republican to announce a challenge to Democratic Sen. Mark Warner. Reeves previously ran for the 7th District in 2022, placing third in the Republican primary. #IA02: The field of Republicans running for Iowa’s open 2nd District grew over the past week, with former Rep. Rod Blum and state Rep. Shannon Lundgren announcing campaigns. The seat is currently held by Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate. Guv roundup: The first millennial elected to the California state Assembly, Democrat Ian Calderon, who eventually rose to majority leader before leaving office in 2020, has entered the crowded primary for governor. In Texas, businessman Andrew White, the son of former Gov. Mark White, launched a Democratic challenge to Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. White also ran for governor in 2018, losing a runoff for the Democratic nomination. In Wisconsin, former state Assemblyman Brett Hulsey is the latest Democrat to join the race for the state’s open governorship. In Maine, state Rep. Ed Crockett, who had been elected as a Democrat, will run for governor as an independent. And in Ohio, Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel said he would not run for the state’s top office, essentially clearing the field for Vivek Ramaswamy to be the GOP nominee. Redistricting roundup: In Kansas, Republican state legislators are moving closer to trying to force a special session on redistricting, according to Punchbowl News. Their target: Drawing Rep. Sharice Davids, the lone Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation, out of the 3rd District. In Utah, a legislative committee tasked with redrawing the state’s congressional map under a court-ordered process considered several proposed maps this week ahead of an Oct. 6 vote on a recommendation. And Ohio’s redistricting committee met this week on redrawing the state’s congressional lines as the GOP-controlled state legislature appears unlikely to approve a bipartisan map before a Sept. 30 deadline. Endorsement watch: Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn is trumpeting endorsements from 15 former congressmen from his home state as he tries to fend off state Attorney General Ken Paxton in next year’s primary. The list includes former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, former Ways and Means Chairmen Bill Archer and Kevin Brady and former House Armed Services Chair Mac Thornberry. In Illinois, Rep. Robin Kelly won Connecticut Sen. Christopher S. Murphy’s backing for her Senate campaign as she battles Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the Democratic primary. And in Michigan, Democratic former Rep. Brenda Lawrence has endorsed state Rep. Donavan McKinney’s primary challenge against Rep. Shri Thanedar, whose 13th District includes territory she previously represented in Congress. #MISEN: Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who is running for Senate in a swing state, said she is drafting articles of impeachment against Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Stevens is in the middle of a competitive primary that also includes state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Michigan public health official Abdul El-Sayed. Early investments: SBA Pro-Life America and Women Speak Out PAC announced they would invest $4.5 million in both Georgia and Michigan ahead of next year’s Senate races. The money will go toward a field effort to reach 1 million voters in both states through digital ads, mail and an early vote campaign. More investments: The DNC on Thursday announced a six-figure investment to support the Pennsylvania state party ahead of state Supreme Court elections this November. Three Democratic justices are facing (nonpartisan) retention votes. Meanwhile, the DCCC is running ads on Facebook and Instagram targeting vulnerable House Republicans on the impending government shutdown and the expiration of health care tax credits. The four-figure buy is rolling out in all 35 districts that the DCCC is targeting in 2026. Turning Points: Oklahoma’s superintendent of public instruction, Republican Ryan Walters, is resigning to take a job leading the conservative Teacher Freedom Alliance. Earlier this week, Walters announced a plan for every high school in the state to have a Turning Point USA chapter after the assassination of the group’s founder, Charlie Kirk. But one educator told KOCO News she was concerned about a state mandate. Grim: A new Quinnipiac University poll paints a bleak picture of the current political landscape: 79 percent of voters said the U.S. is in a political crisis and 53 percent said democracy isn’t working. The survey, conducted after Kirk’s assassination, also found that 71 percent of voters believed political violence is a very serious problem and 54 percent said it would worsen over the next few years. Nathan’s notes Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections is getting in the meme game. The “6-7” fad, which appears to be all the rage with many Gen Zers these days, provides a decent road map to analyze the fight for the House majority in 2026, Nathan writes. What we’re reading Primary season: Democrats are grappling with competitive Senate primaries in several states, a dynamic the party hasn’t dealt with much in recent years, Semafor reports. While some individual Democratic senators are backing candidates in Michigan and Minnesota, for example, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand have not officially weighed in on those races. ‘Hell, no’: Schumer, meanwhile, has become something of a political punching bag for Democratic Senate candidates from Maine to Iowa, who say they won’t support him for leader if they’re elected, The Washington Post found. Diverging paths: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution looks at the ways 2020 continues to cast a heavy shadow over Georgia politics, with two prominent critics of Trump’s false claims about that presidential election recently launching bids for governor. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is seeking the Republican nomination, while former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan is running for the Democratic nod after leaving the GOP earlier this year. Seeing red: Republicans in a rural slice of Northern California view themselves as collateral damage in a partisan game, with state voters set to decide on a new congressional map that Democrats drew in response to mid-decade redistricting in Texas. CalMatters has the story. Life in DC: Washingtonian is asking the hard questions of D.C.’s drinking spots. Where are the politically themed cocktails in Trump’s second term? The count: 6,927 votes That’s how many more votes Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton received than Sen. Edward J. Markey in Moulton’s 6th District in the 2020 general election, the last time the two Democrats shared a ballot, according to an analysis of data from the Massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth. Moulton is reportedly weighing a 2026 primary challenge against the 79-year-old Markey, a reliable progressive who will complete 50 years in Washington by the end of his current term. This wouldn’t be Moulton’s first attempt to push aside a longtime Democratic lawmaker in a party primary — in 2014, he knocked off nine-term incumbent John F. Tierney by 11 points in his initial House race. Markey, in turn, is no stranger to fending off a serious and expensive primary challenge from a House member. In 2020, he scored a convincing 11-point victory over Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, who had led in the polls earlier in the cycle. — By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly Coming up Sept. 30 is Tuesday, and with it comes the end of the federal government’s fiscal year. The House last week passed a stopgap spending bill designed to avert a partial government shutdown with almost entirely GOP votes. But that continuing resolution has faced opposition from Senate Democrats, and as of Thursday there was no sign of bipartisan talks, much less any agreement. Photo finish Newly declared gubernatorial hopeful Tom Tiffany dons a Cheesehead hat at last year’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
