ANALYSIS — While states and districts that flip between the parties from cycle to cycle get the most attention, sometimes it’s healthy to take a step back and acknowledge places that remain remarkably stable politically. Using Inside Elections’ Baseline metric as a guide, there are 10 evenly divided seats at the core of the battle for the House majority and 25 districts that shifted considerably from 2022 to 2024. But there were also 14 House seats that didn’t budge. Inside Elections’ Baseline metric captures the political performance of a congressional district (or state) by combining all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles into a single score. This index aims to approximate what share of the vote a “typical” Democrat or Republican might receive in any given district (or state) by including elections beyond presidential contests. In the most recent update to the Baseline score, the entire slate of 2016 election results rolled out of the calculation because they were too old and were replaced by the slate of 2024 results. And yet, in 14 House districts, there was no statistical difference in the margin between a typical Republican and Democratic candidate compared with two years ago. What’s striking is that these districts make up an eclectic group of seats without any obvious commonality. When looking at median incomes in the 14 districts, this batch includes California’s 40th District ($126,794) represented by Republican Young Kim, Connecticut’s 4th ($117,299) represented by Democrat Jim Himes, California’s 51st ($100,267) represented by Democrat Sara Jacobs and California’s 41st ($99,799) represented by Republican Ken Calvert. Also included are Mississippi’s 3rd ($55,369) represented by Republican Michael Guest, Texas’ 20th ($60,325) represented by Democrat Joaquin Castro and Georgia’s 12th ($60,966) represented by Republican Rick W. Allen. Education has increasingly become a vote indicator in recent cycles, but it doesn’t really help sort this batch of unchanged House seats. Connecticut’s 4th (where 55.2 percent of residents have a bachelor’s degree or higher), California’s 40th (51.5 percent), California’s 51st (47 percent) and Florida’s 11th (39.2 percent) represented by Republican Daniel Webster are on the higher end of the education spectrum. But this group also includes Arizona’s 3rd (20.6 percent) represented by Democrat Yassamin Ansari, Georgia’s 12th (25 percent), Texas’ 20th (26.1 percent) and Iowa’s 4th (26.9 percent) represented by Republican Randy Feenstra. While President Donald Trump’s gains among voters of color partly explain his recent electoral success, it’s not a clear dividing line in the case of these 14 House seats. Districts with a high non-Hispanic white population — including Iowa’s 2nd (88.4 percent), currently represented by Republican Ashley Hinson, Iowa’s 4th (85.5 percent) and Indiana’s 6th (84 percent), represented by Republican Jefferson Shreve — are in the same group as those where the non-Hispanic white population makes up less than a quarter of the district, including Texas’ 20th (19.7 percent), Texas’ 30th (21.4 percent) represented by Democrat Jasmine Crockett and Arizona’s 3rd (23.8 percent). Even though more districts nationwide shifted toward Republicans from 2022 to 2024, a specific partisan lean doesn't explain the batch of stable districts either. Indiana's 6th (R+32.3), Iowa's 4th (R+27.1), Mississippi's 3rd (R+26.4), Florida's 11th (R+20) and North Carolina’s 8th District (R+16.9), represented by Mark Harris, are very Republican and didn't see a shift. Texas' 30th (D+51.8), Arizona's 3rd (D+48.9), Texas' 20th (D+28.6), California's 51st (D+21.3) and Connecticut's 4th (D+18.4) are solidly Democratic and didn’t see a change either. Similar to House seats that shifted significantly over the past couple of years, a few of the stable districts are actually competitive in a general election. Republicans have just a 4.7-point Baseline advantage in Iowa's 2nd, which could be more competitive now that it's an open seat with Hinson running for the Senate. And Republicans have a 6.7-point edge under the current lines of California’s 41st. But that district could be dismantled to favor Democrats if Golden State voters approve the new Democrat-drawn map in November. The other dozen seats have a more significant Baseline advantage for one party. It would be nice to have a clear through line to explain what makes these districts so politically steady, yet the reality appears to be less provocative. Despite the bravado from Republicans after winning the White House, flipping the Senate and holding the House, the 2024 elections were actually very close. Sixty-five seats saw a Baseline shift of two-tenths of a point or less, and the average Baseline shift for all districts was less than a point, specifically 0.7 points toward Republicans. Post-2026, the Baseline scores could shift dramatically if Republicans are able to buck the midterm trend and avoid losing a big bunch of seats. But if Democrats do well, the 2026 results would then replace the 2018 results in the Baseline calculation, and we might see minimal changes once again.
