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California: Schwarzenegger, Boxer Tied in Poll on 2010 Race

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) topped Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) by 1 point in a hypothetical 2010 Senate race matchup, according to a Field Poll conducted Oct. 11-21.

Schwarzenegger will be term-limited in 2010 and possibly looking for another political office to hold that year, when Boxer plans to seek a fourth term.

In the Field Poll survey of registered voters, Schwarzenegger led Boxer 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Boxer outpolled Schwarzenegger among Democrats (62 percent to 22 percent) and among independents (52 percent to 39 percent).

But the governor topped the Senator among Republicans by a whopping 75 percent to 14 percent. Schwarzenegger also led Boxer among those who described themselves as “conservative” (73 percent to 18 percent) and ran even with her at 42 percent each among voters who described themselves as “middle of the road.”

Boxer topped Schwarzenegger 72 percent to 17 percent among those voters who described themselves as “liberal.” Boxer also had the edge with female voters and Latinos, although Schwarzenegger did better among men and all voters age 40 and older.

In the poll, Boxer performed better than Schwarzenegger in Los Angeles County and the nine-county San Francisco Bay area. Schwarzenegger was stronger among voters in San Diego, Orange and other Southern California counties outside of Los Angeles; the Central Valley; and areas of Northern California other than the Bay Area.

The poll surveyed 1,201 registered voters statewide had a margin of error of 2.9 points. The subsamples contained in the poll had an error margin of 4.1 points.

— David M. Drucker

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