Gallup’s Frank Newport and associates note that, in past elections, there have been “significant shifts in national nomination preferences when the Iowa and New Hampshire results go against the conventional wisdom.” Gallup says that typically in past elections, a Democratic candidate who swept both Iowa and New Hampshire emerged as the national leader (or, in the case of Carter in 1976, co-front-runner). A split decision between Iowa and New Hampshire has been rare in Democratic nomination campaign history during the primary era. On the Republican side, the 2008 campaign marks the first time in the primary era that the national front-runner going into Iowa (Rudy Giuliani in this case) has lost both of the early contests, hardly a surprise since the former New York City mayor chose to forego both. Read the full Gallup analysis.
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