Super Tuesday Wrap-Up: Competitive Races in Tenn., Ala. And Mo.

Posted February 2, 2008 at 2:40pm

Our latest wrap-up of polls in states that vote on Tuesday show that some of the most interesting contests are in the South and Border States where the races on both sides are comeptitive.

To see the top issues driving the races in the Super Tuesday steps, check out CQ Politics’ region-by-region summaries for the Northeast,
South and the Midwest, with more installments yet to come on the rest of the states.

– **Alabama:** Rasmussen Reports says its poll conducted Jan. 31 shows Hillary Clinton ahead of Obama by 46 percent to 41 percent, a drop of 10 points in a week’s time. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama has a 2-to-1 advantage among black voters, although Rasmussen notes Clinton retains a respectable 30% of that vote. Surveys by different pollsters that we reported yesterday had Clinton and Obama tied. Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 38 percent to 30 percent with Mitt Romney at 20 percent. McCain had been tied with Huckabee before the Arizona senator won the Florida primary. A poll also conducted Jan.31 by Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research has the Republican race closer than Rasmussen with McCain leading Huckabee by only 37 percent to 35 percent with a margin of error of 4 percent. The Insider Advantage results for the Democratic race were pretty similar to the Rasmussen poll.
– **Tennessee**: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 35 percent, according to a Rasmussen poll conducted Jan. 30. Clinton runs ahead of Obama 61 percent to 23 percent among white voters, while Obama leads 71 percent to 12 percent among African-American voters. A WSMV-TV poll conducted Jan.28-29 has Clinton ahead 46 percent to 28 percent., with a 5 point margin of error. On key issues, the economy ranks first here among Democrats at 42 percent, but unlike many other states, voters here list health care as the second most important instead of Iraq. On the GOP side, this looks to be one of the most competitive states on Super Tuesday. McCain leads with 32 percent, to 29 percent for Romney and 23 percent for Huckabee. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen says that, as in many states, McCain leads among voters who regard the economy or Iraq as the top issue in the campaign, while Romney leads among those who are most concerned about immigration. The WSMV poll shows the Republican race to be just as competitive as the Rasmussen poll. McCain, Romney and Huckabee seem to have pretty evenly divided the former supporters of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
– **Missouri:** Obama is closing the gap on Clinton here, says a Rasmussen survey conducted Jan. 31. Clinton leads 47 percent to 39 percent, but that contrasts to her 43 percent to 24 percent lead before Obama won South Carolina. The St. Louis Post Dispatch and the New York Times had good pieces in the last couple of days on this race. The Super Tuesday contest is also close on the Republican side. McCain leads at 32 percent with Huckabee close behind at 29 percent and Romney at 28 percent, with the margin of error being 4 percent. The Rasmussen results on both races are consistent with other polls we reported yesterday.
– **Illinois:** It’s a given that Obama would have better than a 2-to-1 edge over Clinton as the home state favorite. On the Republican side, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll has McCain ahead by about the same margin, with support of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters to Romney’s 20 percent and Huckabee’s 15 percent. A big factor in McCain’s lead is that he has made significant inroads among conservative voters since his victories in earlier primaries.