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Latest State-by-State General Election Match-Ups

Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups:

**Kentucky:** John McCain leads Barack Obama 57 percent to 32 percent while Hillary Clinton would beat McCain 51 percent to 42 percent, says a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. 59 percent of Kentucky voters have a favorable view of McCain against 39 percent who do not, 56 percent view Clinton favorably compared to 42 percent and only 37 percent regard Obama favorably compared to 61 percent who do not. Rasmussen has been asking voters in each state whether they think it more important to win the war in Iraq or bring American troops home by the end of the next President’s first term. The outcome here is closer than a lot of other states which favor the bring-the-troops home goal by larger margins. Fifty percent say bring them home; 41 percent say win the war. Forty-eight percent believe McCain was likely to achieve victory compared to 20 percent for Obama. Fifty-two percent believe Obama is more likely to bring the troops home compared to 44 percent for McCain.

**Minnesota:** Both Obama and lead McCain 53 percent to 38 percent, in this Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. Obama is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, Clinton by 55 percent and McCain by 52 percent. Fifty-five percent of voters want the next President to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years, while 36 percent want to win the war. Forty-six percent think winning the war is likely under McCain compared to 23 percent for Obama, but 67 percent believe Obama will achieve the majority’s wishes by bringing the troops home compared to 40 percent for McCain.
A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 shows Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The survey said that none of the three have majority support among crucial independent voters. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.

**Arizona:**Guess who’s ahead in Arizona? McCain leads Obama 51 to 36 percent with 11 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 12-20 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. Margin of error is 4 points. Either Democrats runs very closely with McCain among independents and the pollster says that if the Democratic candidate remains competitive among independents, McCain could find himself in a horse race in his home state.

**Montana:**McCain leads Obama 47 to 39 percent with 14 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent and 9 percent undecided, in a poll conducted May 19-20 by Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads Obama by 13 points among men and 7 points among women. Forty-six percent of voters have a favorable view of McCain against 35 percent who do not, 41 percent view Obama favorably compared to 38 percent and Clinton scrapes bottom with only 29 percent having a favorable view of her against 50 percent who do not. Democrats have only carried Montana three times since 1948, the year in which Harry Truman won, according to the Missoulian newspaper. The only other Democrats to win were Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992, when independent Ross Perot picked up a quarter of the votes and helped him to victory over the first George Bush.

**New Hampshire:** McCain leads Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided in a survey conducted April 28-May 2 by Dartmouth College’s Rockefeller Center.

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