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Polls Show GOP Favored to Win Both Special Elections

Republicans appear poised to have a very good run during Tuesday’s special elections for House seats.

“It looks like Democrats will go 0 for 2 in Tuesday’s special elections,” Public Policy Polling President Dean Debnam said in a statement.

Republican Bob Turner topped Democrat David Weprin by 6 points in a new poll in New York’s 9th Congressional district while Democrat Kate Marshall trailed Republican Mark Amodei by 13 points in a new poll in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional district.

In a PPP automated telephone survey of likely voters in the strongly Democratic New York district, Turner led Weprin 47 percent to 41 percent. The socialist candidate picked up 4 percent, with 7 percent of voters undecided on who they would vote for in the Tuesday special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D). Should Turner win, that’s a one-seat pickup for the GOP.

The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, was the latest evidence that the momentum in the short campaign had swung fully behind the GOP candidate, despite a substantial Democratic voter registration advantage in the district. Turner, a former television executive, has worked hard to associate his opponent with President Barack Obama. In the poll, despite having won 55 percent of the district’s vote in 2008, Obama pulled a 31 percent approval rating.

“If Republicans win this race on Tuesday, it’s real-world evidence of how unpopular Barack Obama is right now,” Debnam said.

The survey of 664 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.8 points.

In Nevada, the Democratic-affiliated polling firm’s survey offered further proof that Republicans are likely to hold the seat vacated by now-Sen. Dean Heller. Amodei led Marshall 50 percent to 37 percent in a poll conducted Friday through Sunday. With 8 percent of those likely voters polled picking a third-party candidate and only 5 percent undecided, Amodei should win Tuesday.

Of the 629 likely voters polled, 36 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the Amodei while 50 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Marshall.

The Nevada poll had a margin of error of 3.9 points.

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