Wisconsin is one of the most polarized state’s in the country, so Republican Gov. Scott Walker was never going to have an easy re-election bid. He already survived a recall effort in 2012. But over the past couple of weeks, the campaign fight has been over whether Walker is the subject of a federal investigation into allegations of illegal campaign coordination. The public discussion has given Democrats headlines and local news clips to use in ads against the governor and has put more uncertainty into the race.  

It’s still not clear that this year’s likely Democratic nominee, former Trek executive Mary Burke, will be able to get over the top. But we’re changing our Rothenberg Political Report /Roll Call rating from Republican Favored to Lean Republican .