Presidential Ratings Change: More States Shift Toward Clinton

Florida and North Carolina are no longer Tossup states

Posted October 25, 2016 at 3:02pm
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in national polls has varied from a little to a lot over the course of the campaign. But the Democratic nominee’s advantage in the Electoral College has been consistent, and it continues to grow with two weeks before Election Day.

According to The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call ratings, Clinton has had more than the 270 electoral votes necessary to win since before the general election officially began.

[Roll Call’s 2016 Election Guide: President]

Now, Florida and North Carolina are moving from Tossup to Tilt Democrat, increasing her total to 323 electoral votes. For context, Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008 and 332 in 2012. 

We’re also moving Arizona from Leans Republican to Tilts Republican (and that might be generous to Trump), and Indiana and Utah from Republican Favored to Lean Republican. Trump’s inability to unify the GOP is creating problems for him in traditionally Republican states.

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence is being dispatched to Salt Lake City for an event Wednesday, which doesn’t inspire confidence in a ticket looking to expand the map. And Trump has been spending a lot of his recent time in Florida. The Sunshine State is a must-win, but so are all of the Republican states, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, if Clinton goes on to win Virginia and Colorado.

It’s still technically possible for Trump to win, but it would take a fundamental shift in the dynamic of the race that resonates across all the competitive states.