One of the questions in the most recent NBC News survey, conducted Sept. 13-17, asked respondents which presidential candidate, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, represents “change.”

A noteworthy 47 percent of those who responded selected Vice President Harris, while only 38 percent identified former President Trump.

Those numbers caused some head-scratching by observers who thought Trump’s nontraditional approach to campaigning and governing, as well as his rhetoric and Harris’ incumbency, would give the former president a strong advantage on the attribute of change.

Change and the status quo

In fact, there are many reasons why Harris has the advantage on the question.

Most obviously, Harris’s ethnicity, gender and race make her a very nontraditional nominee for president of the United States. As a woman whose father came from Jamaica and whose mother came from India, Harris is inherently an “outsider” as a political figure, let alone a presidential candidate.

Sure, Harris is the sitting vice president and has remained loyal to President Joe Biden. And she has sought credit for the Democratic administration’s successes. 

But Biden is rarely in the news these days, and while Republicans hold the vice president responsible for the last four years, few independent voters do. Most voters don’t think vice presidents make policy or set the national agenda. 

Finally, it seems as if Trump has been running for president for the past nine years. He is in the news almost daily, and as a 78-year-old white guy, he embodies the status quo, not change.

Harris also has a considerable advantage on two other key attributes — “being honest and trustworthy,” and “being competent and effective” — in the NBC News survey.

Having a statistical advantage on these characteristics doesn’t guarantee election, as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found out in 2016 when she lost to Trump. But it’s a problem for a former president whose overall favorability is worse than his opponent’s ratings.

Trump does have advantages on some key issue areas: dealing with crime and violence, the economy, inflation and the cost of living, and securing the southern border.

But Trump’s advantage on the economy and inflation seems to be eroding, as does his advantage on dealing with crime.

“With interest rates and gas prices coming down, the number of voters saying the economy is good has ticked up. That, along with a debate voters say was net positive for her, has helped Harris a bit,” CBS News reported following a Sept. 18-20 national CBS News/YouGov survey.

Just as important, voters appear more concerned about a president’s character and judgment than with the details of his or her public policy proposals. 

Eight years ago, voters were so tired of the status quo and so frustrated with the country’s political leadership that they gambled on a candidate who was the ultimate outsider, no matter how ridiculous and dangerous his opinions. 

That does not seem to be the case now, after years of Trump’s name-calling, threats and his inaction during the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

The top issues

The NBC News survey also asked respondents to pick one issue that “is the MOST important issue facing the country.” 

The responses were “inflation and cost of living” (28 percent), “threats to democracy” (19 percent), “immigration and the situation at the border” (14 percent), “jobs and the economy” (13 percent), “abortion” (6 percent), and “health care” and “climate change” (5 percent each).

It’s notable that no single issue is seen as most important by more than 28 percent of respondents. In times of inflation or recession, well over half of those polled select one of those answers.

So, while it is noteworthy that “inflation and the cost of living” was identified as the most important issue facing the country, it is not likely to define the presidential year.

State by state

Of course, the November election is likely to turn on a handful of states, which, in turn, are likely to turn on voter attitudes about the candidates.

But the current trajectory of the presidential contest is clear.

Harris has two major paths to victory — one that relies on the three key Great Lakes states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and another that emphasizes Sun Belt states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

A few months ago, the burden was on Democrats to explain why Biden deserved another term. Now, the burden is on Trump to depress Democratic turnout and successfully woo swing voters and suburbanites.

That is much more difficult to do now that Harris is seen as the greater agent of change and the more competent candidate.