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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Turnout will …

Turnout dynamics change every election, despite the certainty on display

The crowd holds a “vote” sign during a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Gov. Tim Walz in the Fitzgerald Field House at the University of Pittsburgh on Oct. 10, 2024. As cliched as it sounds, the election will all come down to turnout, Stu Rothenberg writes.
The crowd holds a “vote” sign during a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Gov. Tim Walz in the Fitzgerald Field House at the University of Pittsburgh on Oct. 10, 2024. As cliched as it sounds, the election will all come down to turnout, Stu Rothenberg writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

It’s a laugh line almost every two years. 

“Who is going to win in November? It all depends on turnout,” reply handicappers, campaign consultants, journalists and everyone else who is trying to predict what will happen and at the same time avoid being wrong about an election’s outcome.

Yes, it is always about turnout because elections are about who votes — not what all Americans believe.

Back in June, when the presidential contest was still between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, I asked a veteran party strategist who has always been able to put aside his/her personal preferences and partisan bent to sketch out the dynamics of the 2024 elections.

The insider told me that the three Great Lakes swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — “are 50-50,” and “the one thing polls could not capture adequately, especially now, is turnout.”

“Pollsters make assumptions about turnout and then devise the sample to fit that assumption. But what happens if the assumptions are wrong?” he/she asked.

I’ve thought about that wise counsel often since then, especially when watching television talking heads pontificate about the most recent poll and the meaning of small sub-samples (like 18–24-year-olds or Hispanics, for example).

The presidential race has shifted over the past few months, particularly after Biden’s exit from the Democratic contest and Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination.

But what has not changed much is the importance of turnout, and the reality of who ultimately casts their ballots in the presidential and congressional contests.

Over the past four years, some voters have died, while teenagers turned 18 and are now eligible to vote. Some have switched their party registration, while others have changed their party self-identification.

Some voters have been motivated to turn out because of reproductive rights and the threat that Trump now poses to democracy, while others have changed their views of the state of the economy and dangers associated with immigration.

Will Black men really turn out in large numbers, and if they do, will they cast a surprisingly large percentage of their vote for Trump?

Will younger voters turn out in larger numbers than ever before?

I’ve grown more and more skeptical about polls over the years because, in part, there are so many pollsters offering contradictory data that I don’t know what to believe and what to ignore.

The presidential contest looks even closer now than it did in the summer, before Biden exited the contest and Harris clobbered Trump in the one debate in which the two presidential nominees participated.

But turnout won’t only impact the fight for the White House. It will also affect the battle for the Senate.

Simply put, the 2024 Senate map is horrible for Democrats. The party is defending 23 of the 34 seats up, including a number of seats in states that Trump won in 2016 or 2020. (There are 33 Class I senators whose seats are up, and one Class II Senate seat, in Nebraska, that is up in a special election.)

West Virginia, where Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin III is retiring, is likely to flip to the GOP, while Montana, which Trump will win next month, “tilts” Republican, according to Inside Elections

Presidential turnout in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada could impact the shape of the Senate electorate in those states as well.

Democrats probably will need a couple of miracles to hold the Senate, including victories in Ohio, Texas and possibly Florida.

The fight for the House of Representatives looks like a squeaker, and turnout from the top of the ticket could be a crucial factor in determining which party wins a majority and will choose the next speaker.

“The close race for president mirrors a tight race for the House, where there’s at least a couple dozen races that are extremely close,” write Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin in Inside Elections. They call the fight for the House a toss-up.

Strong Democratic turnout among younger voters, voters of color, and anti-Trump pragmatists could help Democrats minimize the damage in the Senate and help win control of the House. And, of course, that would also improve Harris’ chances at the top of the ticket.

In any case, don’t drive yourself crazy trying to figure out which state and national polls are the best predictors of what will happen in November. At the end of the day, it’s all about turnout.

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