Don’t be surprised when Donald Trump runs for the presidency again in 2028. 

Why would I think such a thing? Primarily because he keeps bringing it up. It’s clearly on his mind, and Trump says what’s on his mind. 

But why even spend time on something that seems like an unconstitutional fantasy? 

Well, there’s an emerging pattern among Trump supporters. When he says something off the wall or controversial, his backers chastise critics by saying, “Don’t be so sensitive. Of course, Trump isn’t going to do that.” But then when he does it, they say, “Well, of course he did it. He said he was going to do it. Why are you surprised? Get over it.”

After seeing Trump in action for almost a decade, I take him seriously and literally.

Third term on his mind

Trump was planting the seeds for a third term back in August 2020, before he lost reelection. “We are going to win four more years. And then after that, we’ll go for another four years,” Trump told supporters in Wisconsin, explaining he should get a “re-do” because someone “spied on his [2016] campaign.”

Over the past year, Trump has suggested multiple times that he could serve more than two terms.  “FDR, 16 years — almost 16 years — he was four terms. I don’t know, are we going to be considered three-term? Or two-term?” he asked at the National Rifle Association convention in May. 

Then after winning a second term, Trump told House Republicans at a mid-November meeting:  “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’”

At a rally last month in Las Vegas, Trump said, “It will be the greatest honor of my life to serve not once but twice — or three or four times,” before quickly adding, “Nah, it will be to serve twice.”

And just a few days ago, Trump was on the topic again. 

“I’ve raised a lot of money for the next race that I assume I can’t use for myself, but I’m not 100 percent sure,” he told House Republicans at their winter retreat in Florida. “I think I’m not allowed to run again.” But then turning to Speaker Mike Johnson, he asked, “Am I allowed to run again?” followed by, “Mike, I better not get you involved in that argument.”

What the Constitution says

This is clearly more than a fleeting thought for Trump. But can he serve more than two terms?

The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution seems clear that he cannot: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

Changing the law via constitutional amendment is very unlikely in a divided country with divided federal and state governments. It’s hard to get the two parties to agree on what they had for lunch, let alone two-thirds of Congress and three-quarters of state legislatures to agree on an amendment that could keep Trump in power.

There appears to be some awareness that a constitutional hurdle exists to Trump’s desire to serve more than two terms. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said in a social media post shared by Trump: “People are already talking about changing the 22nd Amendment so he can serve a third term. If this pace and success keeps up for 4 years, and there is no reason it won’t, most Americans really won’t want him to leave.”

Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles proposed legislation to amend the Constitution to allow Trump to serve a third term, although the measure would conspicuously disqualify Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama from running again. 

Despite their glorification of the Founding Fathers, Trump and his supporters have demonstrated they don’t believe in the Constitution’s infallibility. For example, they are openly challenging the 14th Amendment, which grants citizenship to “all persons born or naturalized in the United States.” And Trump’s unilateral actions on freezing or eliminating federal outlays challenges to Congress’ fundamental authority to spend money. 

So it wouldn’t be surprising for Trump to attempt something that, on its face, runs afoul of previously agreed upon precedent.

Why would he?

There’s a difference between if Trump can serve for a third term and whether he’ll attempt to run for one. The latter is more likely.

Setting aside the age factor — Trump will be 82 by the fall of 2028, which would be older than Joe Biden was when he left office — there are plenty of reasons for the president to attempt to stay in power. For Trump, running for and being commander in chief has long been a political, business and legal strategy.

Even if he’s legally not allowed to serve, who is going to stop him from running? At this point, Republicans have seemingly given Trump a blank check to do whatever he wants. Their support emanates from either a love for him and his actions or a fear of angering him or his supporters and thus hindering their own political aspirations.

Up to this point, there have hardly been any political consequences for Trump or the Republicans who attempted to prevent Biden from becoming president after the 2020 election. And elected Republicans who support the president’s effort to buck the Constitution probably wouldn’t face a potential backlash until 2028, or maybe even 2030 after it all takes effect.

Trump’s biggest hurdle might be ballot access. When the race gets more engaged later in 2027, another candidate could challenge Trump’s eligibility. But that is unlikely to come from a credible Republican with hopes of a political future within the GOP. And such a fight could come well after Trump’s reelection launch, ensuring the rest of the Republican establishment would likely rally to his defense. The Republican National Committee could also choose to forgo the party primaries and just nominate Trump. 

Then the case could go all the way to the Supreme Court, which has already chosen to give presidents broad immunity over actions while in office. And by that time, Trump may have appointed close to half or more of the justices on the bench. 

But, once again, just because the Constitution currently prohibits Trump from running again doesn’t mean he won’t try. Challenging norms is what Trump does, and that’s partly why Republicans love him.