With a little less than a month until the Virginia gubernatorial contest, Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger has opened up a lead in the polls over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, providing some breathing room for her beleaguered party.

According to a Sept. 25-29 survey from The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, Spanberger has a clear and decisive double-digit lead over her Republican opponent.

According to the poll, Spanberger holds a 12-point edge among likely voters and a 13-point lead among registered voters.

Other recent surveys show a closer contest, and polls in Virginia do not close until Nov. 4. But surveys over the past few months have shown Earle-Sears trailing.

You don’t need to be a political handicapper — I’m no longer one — to know that the Commonwealth of Virginia’s next governor will be Spanberger.

The two other statewide races on the ballot next month — for lieutenant governor and attorney general — show Democrats holding very narrow leads, margins so small that those contests are toss-ups. 

Still, the fact that Jason Miyares, the incumbent Republican attorney general, is trailing his Democratic opponent, former state Del. Jay C. Jones, by a handful of points has to be troubling to GOP campaign strategists.

The Washington Post-Schar School survey found that voters were particularly concerned about the economy, cost of living and jobs and housing. It also found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 61 percent to 34 percent among independents, a crucial group of swing voters.

It is difficult to see how Earle-Sears benefits from the government shutdown that is now paralyzing Capitol Hill. If anything, the furloughs and threatened layoffs of thousands of government employees is likely to accentuate Democrats’ message in suburban Northern Virginia.

President Donald Trump, of course, is another factor for some voters, according to the Post-Schar survey. 

Fifty-five percent of registered Virginia voters “disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president, on par with 57 percent who disapproved of him in an October 2020 poll conducted weeks before his failed reelection bid,” the poll found.

Virginians have often voted against the incumbent president’s party in their off-year elections, a dynamic that benefited current GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021, when Democrat Joe Biden was in the White House. Spanberger’s relatively moderate political profile also adds to her appeal in the Washington and Richmond suburbs and makes her a formidable Democratic nominee.

As the Post wrote after the release of its recent survey, “More Virginia voters hold a positive view of Spanberger than of Earle-Sears. They rate Spanberger favorably by a 13-point margin (50 percent favorable, versus 37 percent unfavorable), while they rate Earle-Sears unfavorably by a four-point margin (38 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable).”

Does all of this mean that the Virginia gubernatorial race is over? In my opinion, yes, but with the usual caveat that dramatic, black swan-like developments could change things. 

Meanwhile, in Jersey

But if November is to be a successful election for Democrats, the party also needs to retain the governorship in New Jersey.

Recent polls from the Garden State show a competitive race between Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, and trading New Jersey for Virginia wouldn’t build momentum for Democrats heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

New Jersey has elected Republican governors, of course, in recent decades, including Chris Christie, Christine Todd Whitman and Tom Kean. But given Trump’s contentious presidency and the state’s partisan bent, most Republicans would have a problem running statewide in 2026.

This year, New Jersey voters seem less than pleased about Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s job performance, Trump’s performance and the condition of the Garden State’s economy.

Trump lost New Jersey in 2024, but he took 46 percent of the vote, an improvement from the 41 percent he got in 2020 when he lost to Biden. Murphy, first elected in 2017, won reelection in 2021, beating Ciattarelli, 51 percent to 48 percent.

Sherrill has an impressive resume, notably as a Navy helicopter pilot and a member of the House, but she has not yet turned her race into a slam dunk for Democrats. Ciattarelli has some statewide name recognition from his 2021 run, and the fact that this race is not over gives Republicans at least a sliver of hope that they can flip the governorship.

As a party, Democrats are still finding their way after their 2024 losses and the ensuing months in the minority under a Trump-dominated Washington. If they want a good start for 2026, they must flip Virginia and hold New Jersey next month.