Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief that the Tennessee special election Tuesday went their way with the election of Matt Van Epps by a decent margin of 9 percentage points. 

But there is little solace going forward when this solidly red district, won by former Rep. Mark E. Green and President Donald Trump by 22 points in 2024, shifted by 13 points.

This comes after poor Republican performances last month in Virginia and New Jersey, where both gubernatorial candidates lost by double digits and the margins in the elections for Republicans dropped by 17 points in Virginia and 11 points in New Jersey from 2021. In both cases, the Democratic candidates ran as moderates in what are admittedly blue states.

In this election, Van Epps was a good candidate in a good Republican area up against a bad, gaffe-prone Democratic candidate whose extreme progressive views were hardly in tune with this center right congressional district. Yet, Aftyn Behn managed to create a real race, portrayed by Democrats and the media as a likely nail-biter.  

In the end, it wasn’t close by most campaign standards; but in this district, it was too close for comfort. 

Now, the postmortems have begun, with Democrats like Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin calling the election “a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms.” Trump celebrated on Truth Social, posting a “BIG Congressional WIN,” and Speaker Mike Johnson said he was “not concerned” about the midterms and the race was “right on target.”

There is probably some truth in what they’re all saying. Special elections and off-year elections aren’t always reliable predictors of things to come. But they can also raise red flags for both parties. Specials can be the canary in the coal mine or representative of nothing.

Without exit polls to give us insight, historical data can provide some guidance, but there were some interesting elements of this special election worth considering in trying to understand exactly what did and did not happen.  

What first caught my attention were the turnout numbers. In this special election, turnout was, for all practical purposes, more like a midterm election than a special election, with the Tennessee race coming within a thousand votes of the 2022 turnout. In 2022, the turnout in this congressional district was 180,822. In Tuesday’s special, it was 179,899. So almost the same.

In 2022, the incumbent Green got 108,421 votes. Van Epps got 96,988 votes — 11,433 fewer than Green, despite a similar overall turnout. 

This means we saw not only a unique special election turnout, but it might indicate what we could see in next year’s midterms. Which party ultimately benefits remains to be seen. Like the Tennessee special, the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia turnouts exceeded 2022 as well. 

The three races share another similarity — the impact of voters’ top issue: the economy and inflation, or affordability or kitchen table issues. It’s clear that Democrats have gained some traction by blaming Trump for continuing inflation, which stubbornly remains at 3 percent.  

Trump’s usual economic metrics don’t necessarily jive with people’s every day metrics. Voters are unhappy with the costs of groceries, health care, housing and other day-to-day necessities where inflation has hit hardest. The metrics Trump most often cites revolve around the markets, tariff revenues, foreign investment and interest rates.  All are important measures for long-term growth. But they don’t put money in people’s pockets to pay the bills.  

Trump does frequently mention lowering gas prices, but it doesn’t help matters when he calls the idea of affordability “a con job by the Democrats.” It’s just another word for inflation — and voters don’t see enough progress being made. He needs to be careful that he does not dismiss the electorate’s inflation concerns, like former President Joe Biden did, particularly given that 57 percent of the electorate said inflation was getting worse in the most recent “Winning the Issues” survey.

Comments like this are responsible, in part, for Trump’s slumping job approval, especially on the economy and inflation.  

The announcement of the “Trump Accounts” Tuesday was a major step in the right direction, showcasing one of the many aspects of the “Big Beautiful Bill” designed to address the economic challenges facing the middle class. These accounts give new parents and their babies a very direct benefit, short term and long term, and equally important, perhaps their first real stake in American capitalism.  

As Democrats across the country move toward socialism, Republicans need to focus on the distinction between the two parties when it comes to their very different approaches to economic policy and in terms that relate to people and their problems.  

Whether it is New York City’s Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Aftyn Behn in Tennessee or the progressives controlling the Democratic congressional caucus, their pitch is the same: If there is a problem, government and more federal funding is the answer. When you can’t put food on the table or pay the rent, more government sounds like an alternative.

In next year’s midterms, Republicans face challenging headwinds. Twenty Republican House members won with less than a 9-point margin in the 2024 vote; 22 won with 10 points or less and 26 with 11 points or less. When we see swings of 13 points in Republican Tennessee and bigger swings in New Jersey and Virginia, well, you do the math.  

Still, a win is a win. After all the hype going into the Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election, Republicans won with a respectable margin.  

Biggest takeaway?  

House and Senate Republicans and the White House need to make a stronger case for actions they have already taken to fight inflation and identify where progress is going to be made that will significantly help people with the cost of living.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.