Since its creation before the 2022 election, Colorado’s 8th District has been won once by a Democrat and once by a Republican, each time by a narrow margin.

Now Democrats are pressing to flip America’s swingiest seat once again. The effort will kick into high gear next week, when voters select the Democratic nominee to take on Republican freshman Gabe Evans, who unseated Democrat Yadira Caraveo by less than a percentage point two years ago.

The primary pits former state Rep. Shannon Bird, a political pragmatist with deep roots in the district, against state Rep. Manny Rutinel, the son of an immigrant single mother who sold his plasma to help his family pay the bills. (A third candidate, Marine veteran Evan Munsing, ended his campaign last month, though his name remains on the primary ballot.)

In a closely divided House, the district north of Denver will be key to determining which party controls the chamber.

Democrats believe Evans is vulnerable, citing his vote last year for Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending measure, which contained cuts to Medicaid, and his support for the president’s immigration crackdown.  

But Republicans, who are united behind Evans, say whichever Democrat emerges victorious next week will be battered and weakened by what’s been a divisive primary.

“Whoever escapes will be a bruised and broke liberal who will be rejected by Colorado voters this November,” Zach Bannon, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in an email. 

Trump won the 8th District by 2 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, which rates the race a Toss-up.

The right candidate for a swing seat

Threaded through the Democratic primary for Colorado’s 8th District are many of the themes shaping the midterm elections: the immigration debate, cuts to Medicaid and how aggressively Democrats ought to push back against Trump’s agenda.

And like other Democratic contests in purple districts, the race between Bird and Rutinel has been shaded by the party’s ideological rifts. 

Bird has pitched herself as a centrist who can win over the district’s swing voters, and she has the support of the moderate Blue Dog PAC. California Rep. Adam Gray, who leads the group, called Bird the kind of candidate who “knows how to win tough races.”

She has faced criticism for breaking with her party on a number of votes in the legislature, including legislation that would have prohibited local governments from cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials. In an interview with Colorado Public Radio, Bird said she voted against the 2025 measure in committee because she was concerned it could lead to steep fines against local officials; she was absent the day of final passage but told the outlet she would have supported the bill. She has also proposed an overhaul of ICE, including mandating that all agents wear body cameras and requiring judicial warrants for arrests. 

Rutinel has embraced a populist message that emphasizes economic issues and has collected the support of a number of unions, along with BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

BOLD PAC Chairwoman Linda T. Sánchez of California cited Rutinel’s working class background, praising him as “the type of leader we need … fearless and committed to supporting working families in Colorado.”

Rutinal has shifted away from some of his more progressive views. In May, he told The Colorado Sun he opposes a ban on fracking and the cancellation of all student debt, two policies he had previously expressed support for. He said he endorses a public health insurance option, but not “Medicare for All,” the Bernie Sanders-backed measure to establish a government-run health insurance system.

Unlike a handful of other primaries in which progressives and moderates were on the ballot, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not publicly picked a side in the 8th District race — and party officials assert that both Bird and Rutinel are capable of defeating Evans.

But Bird’s supporters say her moderate record makes her more palatable to voters in a closely divided district. 

“She worked across the aisle to bring people together and get big things done without ever compromising her values,” said Matt Corridoni, a strategist who works with The Bench, a new group dedicated to supporting what it describes as the “next generation of leaders who prioritize service and solutions above party orthodoxy.”

Bird, Corridoni added, “appeals to those independent swing voters who are not hyperpartisan. They’re looking to government to actually make their lives better.”

Rutinel has through June 10 far outpaced Bird in fundraising, bringing in $4.1 million to his opponent’s $2.2 million. 

Courting a key demographic

Bird, who grew up in a working class family led by a single mother, has emphasized her ties to the area, noting that her entry point into politics was her service as the citizen chair for a school district bond campaign. Rutinel, by contrast, settled in the district after graduating from Yale Law School in 2022. 

But Rutinel has sought to tap into a fast-growing voting bloc in the district — Latinos, who make up about 40 percent of its adult population. He’s highlighted his heritage, pointing out that his mother emigrated from the Dominican Republic. 

Both Evans, the current holder of the seat, and his predecessor, Caraveo, are Mexican American.

In addition to support from BOLD PAC, Rutinel has received a major boost from the Latino Victory Fund: The group spent $800,000 this spring supporting him and pledged earlier this month to invest an additional $1 million on TV and digital ads, as well as texts to voters. Meanwhile, You Can Push Back, a super PAC funded primarily by crypto-currency billionaire Chris Larsen, has spent $977,000 supporting Rutinel, according to the tracking site Transformer. That’s the same pro-AI regulation group that recently spent $3.3 million backing New York state Assemblyman Alex Bores, who lost a House primary Tuesday.

Framing the Democratic contest as one between a progressive and a moderate is the wrong lens, say some of Rutinel’s backers. They say Rutinel wins the “electability” argument because he has a better chance of connecting with Latino voters, especially the working class electorate that predominates in the 8th District. Latino voters were previously viewed as a reliable pillar of the Democratic coalition, but the demographic has shifted right in the Trump era. 

Since 2024, though, polls suggest Latino voters are swinging away from the GOP. A survey released in May by UnidosUS, a Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, found Trump’s support eroding among Latino voters, a shift largely driven by economic concerns.

“Latino voters are true swing voters, and Manny is the type of candidate who can win them over” in a general election, BOLD PAC spokeswoman Valeria Ojeda-Avitia said in a text message.