The House version of this year’s mega surface transportation reauthorization bill could increase the deficit anticipated in the Highway Trust Fund over the next five years despite the inclusion of new fees on electric vehicles and hybrids, according to the Congressional Budget Office

The CBO analysis, released Thursday, found that cumulative shortfalls expected by the end of 2031 under the bill would be $99.5 billion for the highway account and $48.2 billion for the transit account, based on historical spending rates and higher authorized amounts in the legislation.

Those metrics would be an increase from the CBO’s baseline projections for the HTF accounts published last month, which estimated $86 billion and $45.2 billion shortfalls for the highway and transit accounts, respectively.

The Transportation and Infrastructure Committee in May approved the measure with a strong bipartisan vote, 62-2. It would authorize $580 billion for highway and rail programs through fiscal 2031, with $474 billion coming from the HTF.

The measure aims to supplement the trust fund with new annual registration fees for owners of electric and hybrid vehicles, but wouldn’t touch the main funding source: taxes on gasoline and diesel.

Since the late-May markup, the bill has been awaiting action from the House Ways and Means Committee, which needs to weigh in on how its provisions should be funded. Those discussions will likely take into account the new EV and hybrid fees, which the CBO confirmed won’t have much impact on surface transportation program finances.

The bill, as written, would set those fees at $35 for hybrids and $130 for EVs at the start of fiscal 2027. Beginning in 2029, they would increase by $5 each year, not to exceed $50 per year for hybrids and $150 for EVs.

Thursday’s CBO analysis included specific revenue impacts from Section 1129 of the bill, which would institute those fees. It estimates enactment of that section would increase revenues by a net of about $12 billion over the fiscal 2026-2036 period after factoring in decreases in other tax revenues as a result of the fees.

The estimate assumes that vehicle registration revenues would be incorporated into the trust fund, but acknowledges the bill currently contains no such requirement.

Over the first five years, or during the period of the House bill’s authorization, the revenue intake would be under $3 billion total, including $1.2 billion in fiscal 2031. Even with that cash infusion, surface transportation spending would still exceed dedicated revenue and widen the trust fund shortfall by $40 billion in fiscal 2031 compared to the previous year.

There is currently no indication of when Ways and Means intends to take up the House bill, or when it could then receive a floor vote in the chamber. Meanwhile, movement on companion legislation in the Senate has been slow, with leadership of the Environment and Public Works Committee recently saying “time’s a-ticking” and that lack of engagement from other committees of jurisdiction has been slowing the process.