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By Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari

With its early August primary looming, Michigan is the next state to shine a spotlight on Democratic divisions.

But unlike in deep-blue New York and Colorado, where progressives notched big wins last month, Michigan is a swing state, with a Senate race that will be key to deciding control of the chamber and several competitive House seats. 

The Democratic primary for Senate, now a two-person race between centrist Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, is the next big test for progressives, as they seek to flex their clout in Democratic politics, even in a battleground state. Stevens, meanwhile, is warning that Republicans would rather face El-Sayed this fall. The involvement of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has run ads through its super PAC the United Democracy Project to support Stevens, has also put the charged topic of Israel at the center of the race. 

The winner of the Aug. 4 primary is set to face former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the state’s 2024 Senate race but is unopposed in this year’s GOP primary. Holding the Michigan seat is a must for Democrats in their quest to flip the Senate.

Both Democratic campaigns have touted polls this week showing their candidate in the lead. Stevens got a boost this week when retiring Sen. Gary Peters backed her as his successor, while El-Sayed will get an assist at campaign stops this weekend from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin hasn’t weighed in on the Senate fight, but the Democrat did endorse retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, who is locked in a three-way primary to take on Republican freshman Tom Barrett in her old House district. 

“We need fighters, and whether it is standing up to President Trump’s attacks on our democracy, taking on the corruption and special interests, or standing up for working people — [Matt] knows what it means to fight,” Slotkin said in a Wednesday statement.

Maasdam is running against Bridget Brink, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, and William Lawrence, a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement who is backed by key progressives. But the Congressional Black Caucus PAC has urged Lawrence backers to withdraw their support, following a Huff Post report that highlighted his past comments deriding Black political leaders. Lawrence, who has since sought to clarify those remarks, is also set to campaign this weekend alongside Sanders and El-Sayed. 

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates both Michigan’s Senate race and the 7th District race as Toss-ups.

Starting gate

Show us the money: Many Democratic candidates outraised their Republican opponents in key House and Senate races during the second quarter, reports filed with the Federal Election Commission ahead of Wednesday’s deadline showed. 

#MESEN: Thirteen candidates filed to be Maine’s next Democratic nominee for Senate before Wednesday evening’s deadline, although at least one had withdrawn a day later. They’re all running in a strange, two-week sprint to a convention next weekend, when 601 delegates will pick a replacement for Graham Platner. The race was rocked this week by the fatal shooting of a Colombian immigrant in Biddeford, Maine, by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent. 

More MAGA Majority makers: The NRCC added seven additional candidates to its MAGA Majority program for promising candidates seeking to flip Democratic-held seats. 

RIP: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham died suddenly Saturday from a tear in his artery, according to a preliminary medical report. He was 71. The Budget Committee chair, who was serving his fourth Senate term, had a reputation as a foreign policy hawk and was regularly at the center of legislative debates. A close ally of President Donald Trump, he was also a key link between Senate Republicans and the White House.  

Sibling succession: South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster picked Darline Graham, the younger sister of the late senator, to serve out the rest of his term, which ends in early January. She was sworn into the Senate on Tuesday, becoming the first sister to directly succeed a deceased senator and the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate, our colleague Nick Eskow reported. Darline Graham hasn’t yet said if she will enter the race for a full term. A special primary election to pick a replacement for the late senator on the ballot will be held on Aug. 11, and several South Carolina Republicans could soon join the contest. 

Democrats divided: House Democrats were split on a floor vote Wednesday on an amendment that would have blocked billions of dollars in U.S. military aid to Israel, underscoring party divisions over the politics surrounding the Middle East, our colleague John T. Bennett writes.

ICYMI

Endorsements: Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar and California Rep. Lateefah Simon both endorsed El-Sayed in Michigan’s Senate race. In New Hampshire, the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund has endorsed Democrat Stefany Shaheen for the open 1st District seat. In Minnesota, former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is backing Rep. Angie Craig for Senate. And MS Now reports that Cindy McCain, the widow of Republican former Sen. John McCain, and her son Jimmy are hosting a fundraiser in September for Arizona’s Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs.

Trump endorsements: The president unveiled a series of endorsements this week, including in Minnesota, where he’s backing MyPillow founder Mike Lindell’s campaign for governor. He also weighed in on a couple of contested Republican primaries, backing Tennessee state Sen. Brent Taylor in the 9th District and businessman Anthony DiLorenzo in New Hampshire’s 1st. And he announced his support for several Republican House nominees, including Jeanine Driscoll (#NY04), Barb Regnitz (#IN01), Steve Toth (#TX02), John Cowan (#GA11) and Jenny Costa Honeycutt (#SC01). 

Porter turns the page: Former California Rep. Katie Porter, whose recent gubernatorial and Senate runs both came up short, said in an Instagram post that she’s “done for now with politics and campaigning.” Instead, Porter is rebranding as a “bookstagrammer” and will use her account to promote book recommendations and author content.

Stock trading reversal: Former Virginia Rep. Elaine Luria, who is running to win back the 2nd District seat she lost four years ago, said she now supports a congressional stock trading ban, a reversal from when she was in Congress. 

Guv roundup: Former Nebraska state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, who lost a Republican bid for governor in 2022, is gathering signatures for another gubernatorial run, this time as a nonpartisan candidate. In Wisconsin, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who is among several Democrats vying to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers, fired her campaign manager citing financial irregularities but has vowed to stay in the race. And in Colorado, pastor and Marine Corps veteran Victor Marx was declared the winner of the state’s Republican primary last week. He’ll be a decided underdog against Democratic nominee Phil Weiser.

Nathan’s notes

With less than four months to go before Election Day, there’s still not much clarity over the fight for the Senate, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes. And if history is a guide, control of the chamber will likely remain up for grabs all the way to November. 

What we’re reading

Swing seat dispatch: New York Rep. Mike Lawler faces a tough reelection race this fall, but NOTUS reports that he’s relying on his retail politicking and walking a fine line with the White House as Democrats seek to nationalize the Hudson Valley-area race. Lawler also disclosed in a television interview a 2012 arrest for driving under the influence. 

Missing Mojo? Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was a 2024 presidential contender whose war on “woke” policies earned him a national reputation. But the Tallahassee Democrat took stock of the Republican’s legacy as he enters his final six months in office and found that he’s lost much of his pull with elected officials and other influential government leaders.

High cost headaches: Pennsylvania Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie both flipped seats last year while campaigning on lowering prices. Now running for reelection for the first time, The Washington Post looks at how both GOP lawmakers must contend with costs that many voters still consider too high as their party seeks to maintain its narrow grip on the House majority.

Family ties: Georgia Rep. Mike Collins, the Republican challenging Sen. Jon Ossoff, is close to a white nationalist influencer who has shared posts with Nazi imagery and called for “clearing our land of other people,” according to a report by CNN’s KFIle. The influencer? Collins’ son-in-law.

The count: 240

That’s how many of this cycle’s most frugal House primary winners it would take (based on their campaign expenditures) to match the $18 million Democratic former Rep. David Trone spent in just the second quarter on his losing effort to regain his Maryland seat.

Key race: #WYAL

Candidates: Last year’s retirement announcement by Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis set off a political scramble in deep-red Wyoming. GOP Rep. Harriet Hageman announced that she would run for Lummis’ seat, and now 10 Republicans and two Democrats are vying for the at-large seat Hageman is vacating. The GOP field includes former state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, state Senate President Bo Biteman, rancher and retired attorney Frank Chapman, conservative activist Steve Friess, Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray, businessman Reid Rasner, former Democratic state Sen. Keith B. Goodenough and Army veterans David Giralt and Kevin Christensen. Former state Sen. Lisa Kinney is the leading Democratic contender. Both parties will choose their nominee on Aug. 18.

Why it matters: In a state as conservative as Wyoming, the GOP nominee is almost assured to be its next member of the House, setting the winner up for what could be a long career in Congress. 

Cash dash: Several of the candidates have largely self-funded their races. Loans made up $1.7 million of Rasner’s $2 million fundraising haul as of June 30, while Chapman’s $1 million loan accounted for almost all of his fundraising. Gray’s total haul of $1.4 million through June included loans to his campaign totalling $1.1 million. And Friess loaned his campaign $2 million, which made up the bulk of his $2.2 million in total fundraising. 

Backers: Friess is the son of philanthropist Lynn Friess and the late Foster Friess, a former Wyoming gubernatorial contender who donated millions to conservative Christian and GOP causes and candidates, including Trump. Giralt, who previously worked as a policy adviser to Lummis, has the support of Reps. Jake Ellzey of Texas, Mike D. Rogers of Alabama and Pete Stauber of Minnesota, as well as entertainer and gun rights advocate Ted Nugent. 

What they’re saying: All of the GOP contenders are strong conservatives who hew closely to the Trump agenda. Giralt has highlighted his ties to the state and his experience commanding paratroopers in Afghanistan, which earned him a Bronze Star. Biteman has emphasized his more than two decades of experience in the oil, gas, and mining industries as a landman. Gray is pitching himself as a “principled conservative” who was the lead sponsor of voter ID legislation. Friess says he’s a “political outsider with real-world experience in the private sector” whose father taught him about the importance of giving back to his community. Rasner is running on a platform that calls for new investments in infrastructure, including repairing aging bridges and modernizing the state’s airports, as well as relocating the Bureau of Land Management headquarters to Cheyenne. He’s also a gay Republican who has called out and even sued members of his party, accusing them of defamation and targeting him over his sexuality. 

Terrain: The district includes the entire state of Wyoming, which Trump carried with nearly 70 percent of the vote in 2024.

Wild card: Trump. He has endorsed both Gray and Biteman for the positions they currently hold, and he has close ties to the Friess family. But as of Thursday, the president has not publicly backed any of the Republican contenders.  

Coming up

Primary season picks back up Tuesday, when Arizona voters pick their nominees for the midterm elections. 

Photo finish

The entry for “The Count” in the July 9 edition of At the Races misstated the number of major-party Senate nominees this century who dropped out before the general election and were replaced. It was five, including former Indiana Rep. Baron Hill, who withdrew as the Democratic nominee in 2016 to let former Sen. Evan Bayh replace him on the ballot. 

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