If House Democrats want to get back to the majority, they’re going to have to do better in New York.  

Republicans currently hold nine of Empire State’s 27 House districts — a third of the state’s delegation, even after a great election cycle in 2014. After the 2008 elections, when Democrats expanded their House majority nationwide, Republicans held just three of New York’s 29 seats (10 percent).  

Freshman GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin represents the consistently competitive 1st District. And even though Democrats are headed for a competitive primary between Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst and Suffolk County Planning Commission Chairman David Calone, the race is likely to be close once again. We’re changing the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report /Roll Call rating from Leans Republican to Tossup/Tilts Republican .  

The best way for Democrats to ensure they gain seats in New York is to hold their own.  

Even though Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney had a close call in 2014 in the 18th District, GOP strategists aren’t optimistic about defeating him in 2016, particularly in a presidential year. We’re changing our rating from Democrat Favored to Safe Democratic .  

You can read more analysis of both races in the Oct. 1 edition of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report .  

Without Maloney’s seat, Democrats are defending just six of 31 districts on our list of competitive races. The list is likely to evolve later in the cycle depending on the national mood and presidential nominees.

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