Confused About the Election? These 5 Charts Will Clear Things Up

What we already know about November:

Hillary Clinton's the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. ( TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)
Hillary Clinton's the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. ( TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)
Posted June 17, 2016 at 1:07pm

This election season has been weird. Republicans are still running away from having to answer any questions about their nominee for the presidency. Libertarians are telling everyone to “feel the Johnson.” It looks like Sanders may not be going anywhere until the convention.  

All signs point to things just getting weirder.  

Donald Trump is the man for the GOP. (Photo By Al Drago/CQ Roll Call)

Never fear. Though Roll Call can’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen in November, our data and graphics team has been hard at work assembling the charts you’ll need in order to get a handle on things.

Trump’s competition is toast

French-or-Sasse-FINAL We may keep hearing about last-minute GOP presidential candidate switches right up until the eve of the convention. But there’s nobody being talked about as an alternative who voters actually know or like.  

Bill Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard tried to make David French happen , and various figures have mentioned Ben Sasse as an establishment alternative. But an Economist/YouGov poll showed the only name recognition for either politician comes from immediate family and close relatives.  

[Related: Bill Kristol’s French Revolution is French Toast ]

Nobody’s feeling the Johnson

If you pegged your hopes on anti-establishment libertarian Gary Johnson to take down Trump as a third-party candidate, again, you’re in for a disappointment. Simply put, most people don’t know who he is , which would likely pose problems in an election.  

[Related: Most Americans ask: Who is Gary Johnson? ]

Bad news for Trump

Trump will almost definitely come out of the GOP convention as Hillary Clinton’s only real opponent for the presidency. That’s where his good fortune ends. A CQ/Roll Call survey of GOP Hill aides found they don’t have much faith in their presumptive nominee. About 64 percent expect Clinton to win, and 22 percent expect her to win in a landslide.  

[Related: CQ Roll Call Survey: Trump Not Winning Over GOP Hill Aides ]

Neither nominee is popular

Independent's_Views_on_Donald_Trump (3)[1]-01
Pundits suggest Clinton might cruise through November, but she still has some worrying weaknesses. According to an Economist/YouGov poll of independent voters, Trump is about as unpopular as expected — more than 60 percent of respondents view him unfavorably. But Clinton isn’t far behind.  

[Related: Like Trump, Clinton Struggles With Independent Voters ]  


The presidential race looks like a foregone conclusion

Screen Shot 2016-06-17 at 12.26.33 PM
Caveat: Things can change, especially in a year when Trump’s success confounded nearly
mainstream political analyst. Still, at this point the Roll Call Election Tracker projects Clinton will win 332 electoral votes, well over the 270 threshold she needs to capture the White House. That includes likely Clinton victories in traditional battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Get breaking news alerts and more from Roll Call on your iPhone or your Android.