Ratings Change: 2 More States Solid for Clinton

Virginia and Colorado look out of reach for Trump

Posted October 18, 2016 at 5:25pm
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Supporters of Donald Trump might take solace in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, which showed him trailing Hillary Clinton by 4 points. But Trump’s path to victory in the Electoral College is an increasingly narrow one.

At the beginning of the election cycle, any GOP presidential nominee likely needed to win Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia to get more than 270 electoral votes. 

[Roll Call’s 2016 Election Guide: President]

But Clinton continues to outpace Trump in two of those initial tossup states. She has an 11-point advantage in Virginia and a 9-point edge in Colorado, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Even when Trump narrowed Clinton’s national lead in September, neither state looked particularly good for the GOP candidate.

We’re changing The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating in Virginia and Colorado from Lean Democratic to Democrat Favored.

That puts increased pressure on Trump to win in Pennsylvania, where Clinton has had a consistent, if sometimes narrow, edge. Winning Iowa and Nevada is simply not enough for Trump to balance losses in Virginia and Colorado.