Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to have a narrow but distinct advantage over Donald J. Trump in the presidential race, but one state that President Barack Obama won twice looks to have slipped away from the Democrat’s reach.

Obama won Iowa twice with little fanfare, but Trump is well-positioned to win the Hawkeye State’s six electoral votes on Tuesday. The final pre-election poll by Iowa-based Selzer & Co., conducted Nov. 1-4, showed Trump with a 46-39 percent lead. Other private polling confirms the Republican’s advantage.

[Roll Call Election Guide/ President]

We’re changing the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating from Tossup to Tilts Republican. A shift in Iowa still keeps Trump below 200 electoral votes out of the 270 necessary to win the White House. Clinton looks poised to win 323 electoral votes, with Ohio the remaining tossup.

Overall, in my mind, there’s a difference between a close race and a tossup race. This is a close race, but Clinton continues to have an easier path to victory in the Electoral College.