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2 New Polls Tell Different Stories in Open Michigan Seat

More than a quarter of voters still undecided in GOP survey

Michigan Rep. Dave Trott isn’t running for re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)
Michigan Rep. Dave Trott isn’t running for re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Two new partisan polls of the open-seat race in Michigan’s 11th District, where Republican Rep. Dave Trott is not seeking re-election, tell slightly different stories about the contest. 

Polling conducted for the GOP nominee, businesswoman Lena Epstein, and the National Republican Congressional Committee showed a neck-and-neck race with the Democrat narrowly ahead and more than a quarter of voters still undecided. 

A poll for Democrat Haley Stevens’ campaign, also released Wednesday, gave her a 10-point lead — a greater edge than Stevens had in the campaign’s polling conducted in August and earlier in October. 

In the Republican survey, conducted by Harper Polling, Stevens led Epstein 36 percent to 35 percent, with 27 percent undecided. Two third-party candidates took 1 percent each. Harper surveyed 400 likely voters from Oct. 10-13 on landlines and cellphones. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. 

In the Democratic poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove, Stevens led Epstein 44 percent to 34 percent with 16 percent undecided. The poll surveyed 513 likely voters from Oct. 10-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. ALG’s previous polling of the race showed Stevens leading 42 percent to 37 percent in early October and 44 percent to 36 percent in mid-August.

In Harper’s August poll of the race, Stevens led 34 percent to 29 percent, with 32 percent undecided. A New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll at the beginning of October gave Stevens the edge, too — 45 percent to 38 percent with 17 percent undecided. 

Stevens was the chief of staff to former President Barack Obama’s Auto Task Force. Epstein co-chaired President Donald Trump’s campaign in Michigan. 

Trump carried the 11th District by 4 points in 2016, while Trott won re-election by 13 points. He announced last fall he wouldn’t run for a third term.

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Tilts Democratic.

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