Here’s why Republicans underperformed on Election Day — yet again
Lack of a strong message sinks GOP, but there's time for a fix
“Republicans underperform – again.” This headline could have been written the morning after the last four elections and a raft of special elections since 2016. All saw Republican candidates lose eminently winnable races and the party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — over and over again.
As Republicans find themselves in this difficult situation, they should consider three serious questions that clearly emerged out of the 2022 election and were reinforced in the most recent 2023 election.
1) Have Republicans taken clear steps to improve their performance among independents?
2) Despite voter dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s economic policies, how are Republicans translating those concerns into effective economic policies and messages of their own?
3) Are Republicans focusing on voter priorities — beyond the base — that will deliver a governing GOP majority?
One of the critical challenges facing the party is that in the October 18-19 “Winning the Issues” survey, only 34 percent of the electorate had a favorable view of Republicans, while 60 percent have an unfavorable view. Among independents, it was worse at 23 percent to 68 percent.
This is a terrible brand image; but fortunately for Republicans, Biden is at about the same point, at 40 percent to 56 percent overall, and 33 percent to 60 percent among independents. Democrats are at 41 percent to 53 percent, but are worse than Biden among independents, at 29 to 61 percent.
Improving a party brand is difficult, but as one former Republican member clearly defined, “brand is the delivery of substance.”
This leads to the question of what is the strategy for improving the Republican brand and who is taking responsibility for it?
On Friday, Fox News commentator Laura Ingraham, asked Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel about the many GOP disappointments over the last few years. McDaniel responded to the tough question this way: “In 2022, the RNC, which is a turnout machine, right? We’re not the messengers, we don’t create messages for the campaigns. Those are the consultants who get very well paid.”
She’s half right.
A part of the RNC’s mission is to help turn out the vote for Republican candidates. But turning out the base isn’t the source of the problem. It’s the party’s and the consultants’ inability to engage voters, especially independents, with content-based messaging that connects with voters and their concerns.
The 2022 cycle was a perfect example of the status quo strategies that have led to a trail of Republican losses. Most everyone expected a “red wave.” But the wave never came, leaving GOP strategists to play the blame game.
That cycle, the exit polls showed Republicans had their largest party identification advantage in exit poll history, plus-3 points, as 36 percent of voters self-defined as Republicans and 33 percent as Democrats. The snag came among independents.
Despite the strength of their base, Republicans managed to lose independents by 2 percentage points, winning only 222 seats, an anemic nine-seat pickup. And here’s why independents matter.
The 2010 cycle was a banner year for House Republicans. Yet, party identification in the exit polls was dead even, at 35 percent each way. In this election, Republicans won independents by 19 percentage points, focusing nationally on a “Where are the jobs?” message. They won 242 seats in the House and the majority. So, that 21-point difference with independents was the difference between a wave and trickle.
Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had some good campaign strategy advice when she said, “First you win the argument. Then you win the vote.” But Republican campaigns have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in the last four losing elections on ineffective, partisan and negative messaging. It’s been focused on demonizing opponents rather than offering voters new ideas and a vision for a better future.
I’ve written many Roll Call columns, both before and since 2022, detailing the unusual strength Republicans have been enjoying when it comes to which party voters, including independents, believe can best handle their top issues, especially the economy.
While voters think that Republicans will likely be better on almost every key issue, the party and its candidates haven’t offered the kind of substantive proposals to effectively solidify their support; or at least, that is not what they heard from Republican campaigns. Unfortunately, that disconnect repeated itself in Virginia last week.
In other words, Republicans’ brand problem is in large part because they don’t have a positive, issue-based economic message. The last time Republicans’ brand image was this bad was in June 2018, with a 35 percent to 61 percent favorable-unfavorable. That fall, House Republicans lost 41 seats.
So, how do you take steps to improve the Republican Party’s brand?
In December of 2022 just after Herschel Walker lost the Georgia Senate runoff, I wrote this in Roll Call: “This party needs a serious messaging content audit to understand why the hundreds of millions of dollars of negative campaign advertising … has once again turned off independent voters and cost Republicans seats they should have won.” This research is needed to understand why so many voters, especially independents, preferred Republicans on handling economic issues — but not in the voting booth.
I would argue that, ultimately, the head of the party does have a strategically important role in managing and developing the Republican brand. In fact, it’s a critical responsibility of every RNC chair.
A good example was Haley Barbour. In 1993, Barbour worked closely with both the House and Senate conferences and their leadership to create a positive environment and support for Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” and Republican legislative efforts in the Senate. He focused the RNC on listening to the American electorate and working with the conferences to deliver substantive, positive ideas to voters.
The following year, Republicans won control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since 1952, picking up eight seats in the Senate and 54 in the House.
In the coming weeks, we’re likely to hear the usual excuses for the failure of Republicans to meet expectations, ranging from turnout to technology to candidate quality. Most of the blame, I suspect, will go to Democrats’ ability to out-fundraise the GOP.
It’s true that Democrats have been outspending Republicans in recent elections, but all the money in the world won’t save a brand from bad messaging. The sooner Republicans focus on fixing their brand, the better.
David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.