In late July, I noted that while “off-year elections don’t predict what will happen in the midterms,” they can signal which party has the momentum.

That is exactly what happened in 2025. 

The big mo

Democrats won two races for governor, in Virginia and New Jersey, and they were successful in state, local and judicial contests, including in Virginia, Florida, Georgia and Wisconsin. 

Most importantly, the 2025 results tell us something important about presidential job performance, voter turnout, the views of independent voters and partisan enthusiasm.

Republicans are now on the defensive across the country, according to the national congressional ballot tests and multiple recent surveys.

President Donald Trump’s overall job approval stinks in national polling. Only 41 percent of adults in a mid-December CBS News/YouGov poll approved of the president’s job performance, and only 38 percent approved of his job performance in a mid-December NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

Similarly, only 37 percent in the CBS News survey and 36 percent in the Marist poll approved of his handling of the economy — the top issue of the day.

But those aren’t Trump’s only problems. Voters also disapproved of his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein matter, foreign policy and even immigration, which once constituted a core issue for MAGA and swing voters.

Health care has turned into a major problem for Republicans. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in late November, “Most Americans (66 %) say the federal government has a responsibility to make sure all Americans have health care coverage,” while only 1 in 3 adults says it does not.

New lines, anyone?

GOP efforts to redraw congressional lines mid-decade may add Republicans a couple of House seats (particularly in Texas, North Carolina and Florida), but their strategy has made the party look partisan and petty. 

Moreover, Democratic efforts to redraw lines in California and Virginia could largely offset the Republican redistricting gains.

For the first time, Republican officeholders around the country and on Capitol Hill have started to challenge Trump and complain about his performance in office. There are even rumblings about Trump being a “lame duck” and talk about a possible successor to the president.

Still, Democratic poll numbers remain pathetically weak, showing that voters aren’t thrilled with the Democratic agenda (to the extent there is one).

Republican strategists are pushing the president to be more visible on the stump and believe Democrats’ weakness will make it easy for Trump to energize the GOP rank and file between now and the November midterms.

Demographics and Trump

That may be true, but talk of Republican gains among minority communities has evaporated, and young voters no longer seem to find Trump’s party very appealing. And while there is some dispute about turnout among voters of color next year, there is no doubt about the other key voting group: independents.

Trump is significantly weaker among independent voters now than he was just a few years ago. And a combination of strong anti-Trump turnout (particularly among college-educated whites) and the return of Black and Hispanic voters to the Democratic Party would constitute a serious problem for the GOP next November.

The midterm dynamic, which results in greater turnout among those voters who are unhappy with the country’s direction and blame the president and his party for any problems and failures, usually doesn’t kick in until early in the year of the midterms. But when it does, it can build considerably over time, turning an electoral squeaker into something approaching a blowout.

The fight for the House currently favors Democrats, who can campaign largely against the president and his party.

The Senate remains more challenging for Democrats because of the states in play and possible intraparty squabbling that will pit progressives against pragmatists. That could undermine Democrats’ prospects in a handful of states with Senate contests.

The bottom line

Finally, the president’s announcement that the United States will run Venezuela and take its oil raises multiple questions.

Will the U.S. put boots on the ground to stabilize the situation in Venezuela? Who will run the country in the days ahead? Will the U.S. arrest of Nicolás Maduro lead other countries to copy the Trump administration’s behavior?

More specifically, will the president’s “America First” supporters, who have complained about endless wars, feel alienated and find themselves increasingly unhappy with the GOP’s MAGA wing?

Trump’s effort at regime change in Venezuela is a very dangerous strategy and could magnify his already substantial problems.