The November election is going to be about the economy unless something apocalyptic happens. So how is the economy doing? 

We’ve seen a lot of conflicting economic data released recently that doesn’t provide a clear answer to where the country’s heading. 

The most obvious conundrum is the disparity between economic growth, or gross domestic product, and the number of jobs created over the past six months. The GDP numbers have been quite positive, with a 4.3 percent increase in the third quarter after second-quarter growth of 3.8 percent. 

However, the December job creation number was a disappointing 50,000, while over the last six months a net of only 87,000 jobs were created overall. For some context, the average monthly pre-COVID-19 job creation from January 1981 through February 2020 was slightly over 130,000. 

That leaves a big question. Are we about to see big job increases that reflect a robust GDP, or is the lack of job creation more trend than temporary? Put another way: Is weak job growth merely a lagging indicator of productivity and growth, or is it a canary in the coal mine signaling more uncertainty ahead?

Economic growth and job creation are obviously important in terms of their impact on wages, a critical factor in whether the electorate feels it can or can’t handle the cost of living — or to be precise, inflation.

In a column I wrote in December, I identified the three components of the electorate’s report card on inflation that they will use to decide whether they are satisfied with the results of the economic policies of President Donald Trump and Republicans. So, with new data, here’s where the economy stands.  

Prices versus wages

Since September, the increase in prices has slowed down. From September to November, price increases from Trump’s inaugural month went from an increase of 2.2 percent down to 2.0 percent. In December, it remained at 2.0 percent. This drop was largely due to decreases in gas prices, which fell at a significant rate and offset increases in other areas. 

Meanwhile, weekly wages have increased. In September, wages had increased 2.6 percent since last January, and in November they had increased by 3.6 percent since January. In December, that 3.6 percent figure held. 

But for the electorate, the contrast is not with last January but the start of former Joe Biden’s administration and the inflationary economic impact he produced. That is the problem they want solved. When Biden left office, prices had outpaced wages by 4.8 percent from his inaugural month. 

During most of last year, that number did not change much in contrast with Biden’s inaugural month, ranging from prices outpacing wages by 4.2 percent to 4.7 percent. However, in the last two months, that has improved. Prices have outpaced wages by a smaller 3.0 percent. That is an improvement, but the question is whether that is enough for people to feel they have the cost of living under control. 

Inflation 

An offsetting element to the reduction of gas prices has been electricity prices, which have gone up 4.7 percent. Food prices have gone up 2.5 percent, but the price of meat remains a problem, increasing 9.0 percent. 

While there is recognition that things are slightly better, it is not enough yet to satisfy an impatient electorate. In a recent Winning the Issues survey (Jan. 8-12), 49 percent said the economy is not getting better at all, while 46 said it was. 

Of those saying it was getting better, however, they were split 50-50 on whether the rate of progress is acceptable or not acceptable. That means 23 percent say the economy is getting better but the rate of progress is not acceptable. 

On the positive side, although 47 percent of the electorate still thought that inflation was getting worse, that number is down from 57 percent in our November survey. Among independents, it was 51 percent, down from 63 percent in November. These are still high numbers but are a noticeable improvement. 

Trump’s handling of the economy

Trump’s job approval numbers represent progress but remain low. In the January WTI survey, 40 percent approved, while 52 percent disapproved. That was an improvement from November when it was 36-57. 

In looking at Trump’s economic job approval, in January it’s at 40-54 (approve-disapprove), up from 37-56 in November. Among independents, it is 32-58, up from 28-64 in November. His inflation job approval is at 37-56, up from 33-59 in November. Among independents, it is at 27-60, up from 23-68 in November. 

These remain extremely difficult numbers, but there is positive movement, as a result of a significant decrease in gas prices. However, the numbers also reflect continuing voter dissatisfaction with the state of the economy overall. 

This is particularly evident at a personal level. When voters were asked to compare their wages against the cost of living in the WTI January survey, 65 percent said the cost of living was increasing faster than their wages; 22 percent said they were increasing at the same rate; and 7 percent said wages were increasing faster than cost of living. 

But one of the challenges that continues is the electorate’s concern that Trump is not focused enough on the economy. In a recent CBS News poll (Jan. 14-16), 74 percent of adults thought the Trump administration was not focused enough on “lowering prices of goods and services.” Among independents, 80 percent believed that — and even 49 percent of Republicans. 

Voters want more than simply making the economy better than Biden’s. They want it fixed. 

The public expected things would eventually start to be better without Biden policies, and that is happening. The turning point will be that moment when people go into grocery stores and decide they are finally able to handle the cost of living. With gas prices going down, transportation costs for food should begin to decline, or at a minimum slow the increases. 

As the many provisions of the Big Beautiful Bill take effect, Republicans clearly expect it to reinvigorate the economy and help put more money into people’s pockets to deal with the economic reality that, while inflation is coming down from Biden’s 9 percent high, historically prices will usually rise. The key is keeping wages ahead of inflation. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.