ANALYSIS — Republicans are reveling in recent primary losses of candidates preferred by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But they don’t have to look back very far to see that upset primary winners can get elected to Congress, including some members of their own party.

Democratic strategists tried to tip the scales for family doctor Jasmeet Bains in California’s 22nd District because they believed she gave the party the best chance of defeating GOP Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley. But she finished behind Valadao and local school board trustee Randy Villegas, who has a more progressive reputation.

It’s a similar story in Maine’s 2nd District, where the DCCC got behind state Sen. Joe Baldacci. He finished atop a four-way Democratic field in the initial balloting, but state Auditor Matt Dunlap prevailed through the ranked choice voting process. Dunlap will face Republican former Gov. Paul LePage for the seat left behind by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who declined to seek reelection or run for Senate. 

Republicans didn’t miss the opportunity to rub in the results. “Another brutal day for the DCCC after a second embarrassing primary defeat for one of its preferred candidates,” a National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson said in a statement. “The progressives are taking control while national Democrats can’t recruit, can’t unite, and can’t even win the primaries they’re trying to rig.” 

That’s all fine and dandy, but history tells us these races may not be over. 

Back in 2006, there were several instances in which House Democrats’ top recruits lost in the primary, yet the party still picked up the seat in that fall’s Democratic wave election.

In California’s 11th District, Navy veteran and former airline pilot Steve Filson was one of 22 initial challengers on the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program for promising recruits. Six weeks later, Filson dramatically lost the Democratic primary by more than 20 points to wind turbine company executive Jerry McNerney. The DCCC barely spent in the general election and yet McNerney defeated GOP Rep. Richard Pombo, 53 percent to 47 percent.

In New Hampshire’s 1st District, social worker and community college instructor Carol Shea-Porter trounced state House Democratic leader Jim Craig, the national party’s preferred candidate, by 20 points in the September primary. The DCCC didn’t spend a dime on independent expenditures in the general election but Shea-Porter went on to defeat GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley, 51 percent to 49 percent, in the general election.

In New York’s 19th District, attorney Judy Aydelott was the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2006, but she lost the primary, 50 percent to 27 percent, to John Hall, former frontman to 1970s band Orleans. The DCCC didn’t spend any money in the general election, and Hall defeated GOP Rep. Sue Kelly by 2 points.

That context is good news for Villegas, Dunlap and maybe even emergency room physician Amish Shah this cycle. Shah is running in Arizona’s 1st District, where the DCCC is promoting former newscaster Marlene Galan Woods in the July 21 primary. But unlike 2006, the DCCC might still end up spending in all three races even if its preferred candidate didn’t prevail in the primary. 

Republicans should understand this dynamic because they have been the beneficiaries of such outcomes before. I even warned Democrats — and made this exact point in a very similar column — back in 2010 when they were getting too cocky watching NRCC-backed candidates losing primaries. 

In Idaho’s 1st District, Iraq war veteran Vaughn Ward had reached the top level of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program and had a significant lead heading into the May primary. But he made a series of serious missteps in the final days and lost to state Rep. Raul R. Labrador, 48 percent to 39 percent.

Ward’s “loss calls into question the competence of the NRCC’s political skills,” the DCCC charged in a press release, and yet Labrador went on to defeat Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick. Labrador wasn’t the only disregarded candidate who won that cycle.

The GOP establishment liked businessman Dirk Beveridge and Long Grove Mayor Maria Rodriguez in Illinois’ 8th District only to see Joe Walsh win the nomination and then defeat Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in the general election. In Louisiana’s 4th District, attorney Jeff Landry defeated Hunt Downer, the former speaker of the state House, in the GOP primary before knocking off Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon in the general election. Landry is now the governor of Louisiana and President Donald Trump’s special envoy to Iceland. Keith Rothfus upset U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan by 30 points in the Republican primary for Pennsylvania’s 4th District and came close to unseating Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire in November. (Rothfus was elected to Congress two years later.)

Also in 2010, some GOP strategists were ready to turn the page from Francisco “Quico” Canseco, who had lost two previous bids for the House. But Canseco prevailed over former CIA officer Will Hurd in the primary runoff for Texas’ 23rd District and went on to defeat Democratic Rep. Ciro D. Rodriguez in the general election. And, similar to multiple Democratic candidates this cycle, Republicans Allen B. West (Florida’s 22nd) and Lou Barletta (Pennsylvania’s 11th) had lost previous congressional races but still triumphed in 2010, when the political wind was blowing in their party’s direction. 

You don’t even have to go back a decade or more for such examples. Just look back at Valadao’s electoral history. In 2018, Democratic attorney Emilio Huerta’s campaign flamed out just before the primary. TJ Cox switched districts at the last minute, which does not usually signal a strong campaign, and still went on to defeat Valadao in the general election during Trump’s first midterm. While it was the preferred outcome, it wasn’t the DCCC’s initial plan.

The bottom line is that it might be fun to chide the other side when primaries don’t go their way, but that doesn’t insulate your own party from future defeats. “We are in denial,” one concerned Democratic source told me back in 2010. We’ll see if history repeats itself again.