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At the Races: Crossing lines

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By Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire

Poll after poll suggests Americans are deeply split along partisan lines on most key issues. Signs of that abound, whether in the halls of Congress or on the midterm campaign trail. 

Yet this week brought glimmers of hope for those who believe that finding common ground across rigid political boundaries is healthy for democracy.

In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs plans to select a former Republican mayor as her running mate, The New York Times reported

Hobbs, a vulnerable purple-state incumbent vying for a second term against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, is expected to pick John Giles, who was mayor of the Phoenix suburb of Mesa, and recently switched his party registration to “no party preference,’’ the Times reports. Giles has a history of bucking his now-former party; in 2024, he backed Democrats Kamala Harris for president and Ruben Gallego for Senate.

Meanwhile, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat running for a second term in another pivotal battleground state, picked up the backing this week of two Republican mayors from South Georgia and a prominent Arizona Republican: former Sen. Jeff Flake.

“I’m still a conservative Republican,’’ Flake told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “But character matters. And I want someone in that seat who takes the institution seriously and will protect the institution.”

In Texas, former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley, a Republican, endorsed Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico. Whitley had previously announced his opposition to Talarico’s GOP opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

“Ken Paxton has spent years embarrassing Texas. He’s known for scandal, indictment, infidelity and putting his own interests ahead of Texans,’’ Whitley said in a radio ad that aired in June.

There haven’t been as many prominent defections among Democrats, but last month, Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo picked up the support of 130 Democrats who are helping to burnish his moderate credentials as he seeks a second term. 

President Donald Trump himself has a history of forging political partnerships with prominent erstwhile Democrats, including former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a scion of one of the most celebrated families in Democratic politics.

Bipartisan goodwill, though, only gets you so far. Former Georgia Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan drew praise from Democrats for backing Harris in 2024. But when he tried to run for governor as a Democrat this year, he couldn’t break even 10 percent of the vote.

Starting gate

Election night recap: Abdul El-Sayed clinched the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan, narrowly defeating Rep. Haley Stevens in a divisive primary that the party is trying to move on from. Republicans have already begun attacking their newly minted opponent as sympathetic to terrorists and “dangerous” for the swing state. Meanwhile, Missouri Rep. Wesley Bell defeated a comeback attempt from former Rep. Cori Bush, handing progressives a loss on an otherwise mostly good night for Democrats’ left flank. And over the weekend, Del. Stacey Plaskett claimed the Democratic nod for governor of the U.S. Virgin Islands, while Guam Del. James C. Moylan survived a Republican primary challenge, our colleague Nick Eskow reported.

Edwards out: Embattled Rep. Chuck Edwards announced he was ending his reelection bid after the House Ethics Committee recommended the North Carolina Republican be censured for engaging in “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct” toward two female staffers. Edwards said he’ll serve out the remainder of his term.

Keeping their distance: House Republicans are keeping their distance from their Ohio colleague Max Miller, who is facing allegations of domestic abuse, Roll Call’s Nina Heller reports. Meanwhile, the House Ethics Committee announced it would investigate allegations of domestic violence and abuse and illegal drug use against Miller after he publicly called for the panel to look into him, saying he had “absolutely nothing to hide.”

Redistricting restart: Maryland voters will vote on a constitutional amendment this November that, if approved, would clear the way for Democratic legislators to redraw the state’s congressional map. New lines would almost certainly target Rep. Andy Harris, Maryland’s only Republican in Congress. 

DCCC expands the map again: In a move that reflects their growing confidence ahead of the midterms, House Democrats are zeroing in on 12 additional GOP targets in deep-red districts, nearly all of which Trump carried by double digits in 2024. The new targets include the North Carolina district of NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson. The NRCC dismissed the announcement, saying Democrats were entering “the hallucination phase of the election cycle.” 

Dakota departure: The Democratic Senate nominee in South Dakota ended his campaign following calls from party activists to exit the race and leave independent Brian Bengs as the main competitor against Republican Sen. Mike Rounds. Julian Beaudion’s decision follows similar recent moves by Democrats in deep-red Nebraska and Idaho.  

RIP: Former House Appropriations Chairwoman Kay Granger, the first Republican woman to lead the powerful spending committee, drew bipartisan praise following her death Sunday at 83, our colleague Aidan Quigley reported. The Texan became chairwoman of the Appropriations panel  after Republicans won the House during the 2022 midterms. She stepped down in 2024, a year when she was largely absent from Congress as her family reported she was suffering from dementia.

ICYMI

Guv roundup: Gubernatorial matchups were set in two key states that held primaries Tuesday. In battleground Michigan, Republican Rep. John James will take on Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in the race to succeed term-limited Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. In Kansas, Republican hopes of flipping the governorship rest with state Senate President Ty Masterson, who will face Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher. Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Attorney General Lynn Fitch is hoping to become the Magnolia State’s first female governor, launching her 2027 campaign this week. 

#TN05: Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee endorsed Charlie Hatcher, the former state agriculture commissioner who is challenging GOP Rep. Andy Ogles, in Thursday’s primary. Hatcher also has the backing of Lee’s predecessor, Bill Haslam, though Ogles has the all-important Trump endorsement. The president has endorsed in all House races, save for the open 6th District, which Rep. John W. Rose is vacating to run for governor. 

#FL07: Florida Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos endorsed former news anchor Ryan Elijah’s primary challenge to fellow GOP Rep. Cory Mills, who is the subject of an Ethics Committee investigation. 

Democratic endorsements: Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is backing Democrat Katy Padilla Stout in Texas’ 23rd District. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s Mission to Deliver PAC is endorsing 13 congressional hopefuls with military or national security backgrounds. They include candidates facing upcoming primaries such as Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, who is challenging Sen. Edward J. Markey; Marine Corps veteran Maura Sullivan, who’s running for New Hampshire’s open 1st District; and Navy veteran and former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton, who’s seeking Florida’s 7th District held by Republican Cory Mills.

#MESEN: Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC with ties to Senate Democratic leaders, released a poll Thursday that found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Maine Sen. Susan Collins, 49 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided. The polling memo said that this year, Collins faces “a much more hostile political environment than she did in 2020.”

Missouri redistricting: Opponents of Missouri’s new GOP-drawn congressional map are suing after the Republican secretary of state blocked an effort to let voters weigh in on the new lines this fall, saying the challenge was unconstitutional. 

What we’re reading

#FLSEN: Sen. Ashley Moody’s campaign to complete the Senate term she was appointed to last year when Marco Rubio became secretary of state is more low key than the races being run by other top Florida Republicans, Politico reports, and that has sparked some concerns by GOP operatives. Democrats hope that Alex Vindman, who has proved to be a strong fundraiser, can force a competitive race this fall.

Who will win the “orphaned” vote? Due to California’s nonpartisan primary system, the general elections in several key House races are one-party affairs, including the contest for the redrawn 40th District between Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert. The Los Angeles Times looks at the strategic decisions “orphaned” Democratic voters are making about who to support.   

“Survival mode”: The Associated Press takes stock of DNC Chair Ken Martin as he fights to hold on to his job amid mounting frustration over how he handled a 2024 election “autopsy” report and the party’s financial struggles.

Courting Black conservatives: Capital B News examines Georgia Republican Rep. Mike Collins’ effort to win over Black voters in his challenge to Sen. Jon Ossoff. Collins’ quest comes as “questions about a member of his family’s white nationalist views – and the candidate’s own social media history – continue to generate negative headlines,” the outlet reports.

An aging donor: The New York Times reports that Ronald Lauder, the cosmetics heir who has been a major donor for New York Republicans, seems to have cut off his political spending, raising questions within the state GOP of who might match his giving.

The count: 35 percent

That’s the share of Americans who profess to have no opinion on their district’s current candidates for Congress, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll.

That perhaps shouldn’t be surprising, given that 72 House districts – home to a total of nearly 36 million registered voters – won’t have an incumbent on the November ballot. That’s largely due to the abnormally high number of members willingly leaving the chamber, either to retire or seek other office, as well as those who resigned or lost their primaries.

In addition, redistricting in multiple states this cycle has thrown millions more voters in newly redrawn districts with a different House incumbent atop their ballot.

– By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Key race: #WI03

Candidates: Wisconsin GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden’s 3rd District seat is a top Democratic target this fall. National Democrats have largely lined up behind Rebecca Cooke, who unsuccessfully challenged Van Orden in 2024 and lost a Democratic primary for the seat in 2022. Also seeking the Democratic nomination is former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge. 

Why it matters: The battleground 3rd District is likely to be among the most competitive races this November, but Cooke, Democrats’ preferred candidate, must first get through Tuesday’s primary.

Cash dash: Cooke has been the race’s top fundraiser so far, bringing in $8.6 million through July 22, when she reported having $1.8 million on hand. Berge raised $729,000 and had $106,000 banked for the campaigns’ final stretch. Van Orden, meanwhile, reported raising $7.5 million this cycle and had $4.7 million on hand when he filed his pre-primary report last month. Outside groups have been active in the race over the past year. Law Enforcement for a Safer America PAC has spent $47,000 to support Van Orden, while the Wisco Project PAC, which mobilizes college students in the state, has spent $58,000 opposing his campaign. Pro-Choice Majority Action has spent $249,000 on ads supporting Cooke. And the Indivisible Project dropped $2,290 on a pro-Berge billboard. Meanwhile, Cooke has requested an extension on her personal financial disclosure that OpenSecrets reports has drawn criticism from both Berge and Van Orden.

Backers: The DCCC is backing Cooke, adding her to its Red to Blue program for promising candidates earlier this year. She’s also won endorsements from across the ideological spectrum, from the moderate Blue Dog PAC to progressives such as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and home-state Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Berge touts endorsements from several local leaders and the local Indivisible Coalition. Van Orden, as the incumbent, is backed by the traditional Republican groups. 

What they’re saying: In the Democratic primary, Berge has advocated more progressive policies such as “Medicare for All,” while Cooke said at a June forum that while she supports a public option, steps like restoring expired health insurance subsidies were a more likely approach for Democrats in Congress. Cooke has run ads highlighting her endorsement from Sanders, while another recent spot claims Van Orden “sold us out” on data centers. While Berge is the underdog in the primary, her campaign argues it’s gained momentum ahead of Tuesday’s primary and sees a path to victory. Van Orden, who hasn’t had to contend with a primary, has trained his attacks on Cooke, saying that she’s Democrats’ “anointed” candidate and that he’s brought back important resources for the state as a member of Congress.

Terrain: The 3rd District is largely rural, covering parts of southwestern and western Wisconsin, including the cities Eau Claire and La Crosse. Trump carried the seat by 7 points in 2024, while Van Orden defeated Cooke by 3 points to win a second term. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.

Wild cards: The 3rd District has become a popular destination for members of Trump’s Cabinet, many of whom have made appearances in the district this year, Politico reported. And a win for Francesca Hong in next week’s gubernatorial primary could complicate things for down-ballot Democrats trying to maintain some distance from the self-described democratic socialist, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales wrote last week.

Coming up

Tennessee is a rare state that holds its primaries on Thursdays for largely unknown reasons, and all eyes will be on Republican Rep. Andy Ogles as he faces off against his better-funded challenger. Meanwhile, Sen. Marsha Blackburn confronts Rep. John W. Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts in her pursuit of the GOP seal of approval for her gubernatorial bid. And the Republican primaries for two open House seats – the GOP-held 6th District and newly deep-red 9th – will likely determine their next members of Congress. 

Photo finish

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, with pigs in tow, returned to the State House in Columbia on Thursday to protest wasteful spending in the US government. The former congressman is running in next week’s special primary to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the GOP ticket. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

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