Senate Democrats don’t have to wait long for their next big primary test.

Their race for the open seat in Minnesota has fallen along familiar lines, and Tuesday will determine whether centrist Rep. Angie Craig or the more progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan comes out ahead.  

Craig, who flipped a swing seat in the 2018 blue wave, has led the fundraising race, hauling in $12.8 million through July 22, compared with $6.5 million for Flanagan. Craig also had more in her campaign coffers for the primary’s final stretch — $3.6 million to her opponent’s $1.1 million. 

Here are three things to know about the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

Establishment vs. progressive

The Minnesota primary has perhaps gotten less attention than the intraparty brawl in nearby Michigan, but it again pits two candidates from different wings of the Democratic Party. A similar fight is also taking place Tuesday in neighboring Wisconsin, where Democrats will pick their nominee for governor. 

In late May, Flanagan won the endorsement of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, as the state’s Democratic Party is known, after Craig opted to compete in the primary without seeking the endorsement. Flanagan has touted her grassroots support and her close ties to organized labor. Craig’s campaign, meanwhile, has argued that she’s the candidate best suited to hold the seat in November — evoking her centrist colleague Rep. Haley Stevens’ contention in the Michigan primary, where she came up short against the more progressive Abdul El-Sayed. 

Several Democratic senators have weighed in on the race, with Smith, a former lieutenant governor herself, backing Flanagan. Both candidates each tout endorsements from eight sitting Democratic senators. Flanagan was planning to campaign with Smith, as well as Sens. Christopher S. Murphy of Connecticut and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, over the final weekend before the primary. Craig recently won an endorsement from Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz. 

Gov. Tim Walz has not weighed in on the race, nor has the state’s senior senator, Amy Klobuchar, who is running to succeed Walz. 

National issues made local

The Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies have become a focal point throughout the primary campaign. Operation Metro Surge rocked the state earlier this year, when two Minnesota residents were fatally shot by federal agents. 

Flanagan has also hammered Craig for her 2025 vote for a measure targeting undocumented immigrants accused of theft and violent crimes, popularly known as the Laken Riley Act after a 22-year-old Georgia nursing student who was killed by a man who had entered the U.S. illegally. Craig has since said she regrets her vote. 

Meanwhile, Craig has criticized Flanagan for not taking responsibility for a statewide fraud scandal that roiled the Walz administration early this year and prompted the governor to not seek a third term. Asked about the criticism, Flanagan has opted to defer to her boss: “The governor has said that the buck stops with him and he took the lead here,” she recently told the Minnesota Reformer.  

Republicans have sought to highlight the fraud issue, with Vice President JD Vance bringing it up during his travels across the country. It’s likely to be a key Republican attack line in Minnesota this fall regardless of who the nominee is. 

GOP hopes for a breakthrough

Minnesota has proved a white whale for Republicans in recent decades. While the state has had close elections, Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in two decades, and they last won a Senate election in 2002, when Norm Coleman flipped the seat of the late DFL Sen. Paul Wellstone. 

National Republicans are hoping to change that this year and landed a high-profile Senate recruit in former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya in their quest to put Minnesota on the battleground map. But first, Tafoya must get through a crowded primary that includes former NBA player Royce White, who lost to Klobuchar in 2024; retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who has the endorsement of the state GOP; and Navy veteran Tom Weiler.

Tafoya has led the Republican field in fundraising, bringing in $5.3 million through July 22, with $1.3 million in the bank.

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Likely Democratic.