The midterm primary season is nearly complete and the general election is less than two months away, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty in the House and Senate battlegrounds. 

Polls show Republican candidates and incumbents around the country underperforming in states and districts that typically vote for Republicans. If President Donald Trump can use a rare midterm convention to energize the party faithful and boost GOP turnout in the closing weeks by hitting the campaign trail, Republicans could hold the Senate and minimize their losses in the House. But if an apathetic base doesn’t show up at normal levels, Republicans could suffer heavy losses on Nov. 3.

For now, the battleground continues to shift incrementally toward Democrats as we wait to see if Republicans will bounce back or if the bottom falls out from under them and an unpopular president in the White House. Inside Elections recently updated its rating of 11 races, 10 in Democrats’ favor.

New Hampshire is a rare bright spot for Republicans. Even though Rep. Chris Pappas easily won the Democratic primary for Senate over a challenger running to his left, the Granite State doesn’t get enough attention for being a swing state. And the Republican nominee, former Sen. John E. Sununu, appears to be enjoying some name confusion with his brother, popular former Gov. Chris Sununu. 

While nearly 50,000 more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican contest, the short general election sprint begins as a close race. Inside Elections changed the New Hampshire Senate rating from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up. 

The other rating changes all moved in Democrats’ direction.

Ohio has emerged as a reliably Republican state over the past couple decades, but it remains a major headache for the GOP this year. Despite millions of dollars in spending, Democrats remain competitive in the statewide contests. 

Inside Elections shifted both Ohio’s Senate and gubernatorial race ratings toward Democrats. The contest between GOP Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown went from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, while the open governor’s race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton moved from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. 

Florida is supposed to be a shining refuge for Republican voters living in blue states and a key piece of the GOP’s nationwide, mid-decade redistricting effort to hold the House. But politically, the Sunshine State is not looking like the place it’s been for the past few election cycles. 

Several Florida races look closer than expected. Inside Elections shifted the race for governor between GOP Rep. Byron Donalds and former GOP Rep.-turned-Democrat David Jolly from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. And the contest for Florida’s 14th District, which Republicans redrew to help them flip the Tampa Bay-area seat, remains close between Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor and GOP former state Rep. Mike Beltran. That race shifted from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican and could end up as a Toss-up before Election Day. And more shifts in Florida could come before too long.

Red-leaning Alaska finally wrapped up its primaries, and Democrats are still in contention. The Senate race between GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola shifted from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. And the open race for governor shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. 

In other races, Minnesota’s 1st District, represented by Republican Brad Finstad, has entered the House battleground, moving from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. The contest for Texas’ 35th District in the San Antonio area, which Republican state legislators redrew to elect a Republican, also saw its rating shift, going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. 

GOP nominee Carlos De La Cruz spoke early Wednesday on the first night of the midterm convention in Dallas, and his comments offered a good example of how Republicans want voters to focus on Democrats rather than on Trump or the economy. 

“We cannot go back to the lawlessness that we experienced under Democrats,” said De La Cruz, who spoke before his sister, Rep. Monica De La Cruz of the neighboring 15th District. “My opponent, Johnny Garcia, would vote the way his leftist party bosses tell him. And that would mean a return to open borders and higher taxes on working families.”

Republicans are hoping that voters in Kansas are more focused on Democrats than anything else because GOP Sen. Roger Marshall finds himself in a competitive race with Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister. Inside Elections moved that race onto the Senate battleground, going from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. 

Arizona is still a swing state, but Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has a narrow but distinct edge over GOP Rep. Andy Biggs in her reelection race. That race shifted out of Toss-up status to Tilt Democratic.

Here’s a recap of the 11 rating changes:

Moving toward Republicans

New Hampshire Senate (Open; Jeanne Shaheen, D): from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up

Moving toward Democrats

Alaska Senate (Dan Sullivan, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

Kansas Senate (Roger Marshall, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Ohio Senate (Jon Husted, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

Florida’s 14th District (Kathy Castor, D): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

Minnesota’s 1st District (Brad Finstad, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Texas’ 35th District (Open; Greg Casar, D): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Alaska Governor (Open; Mike Dunleavy, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Arizona Governor (Katie Hobbs, D): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

Florida Governor (Open; Ron DeSantis, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Ohio Governor (Open; Mike DeWine, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican