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Opinion · 118th Congress

The ‘spoiler caucus’ is creating chaos

However, they lost independents by 2 points (47 percent to 49 percent). This resulted in Republicans winning 222 seats, less than expected. 

Opinion · 117th Congress

It was all about the independents, again

What makes 2022 different is the fact that nationally, independents broke with past election behavior by voting for the party holding the White House by a slim margin of 49 percent to 47 percent,

Campaigns · 117th Congress

Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?

On the other hand, when an incumbent leads 49 percent to 47 percent, the challenger needs to win nearly all undecided voters or flip voters who have already made up their minds to vote to reelect

Opinion · 117th Congress

Biden’s State of the Union: a swing and a miss

In terms of inflation, while 47 percent said the president did enough to address inflation in his speech, 53 percent said he didn’t do enough. And this was with a Democrat-heavy sample. 

Opinion · 117th Congress

GOP has to make 2022 about policy, not personality

Given the huge Democratic edge in party registration — 47 percent Democrat, 24 percent Republican and 29 percent independent — any California Republican looking to win statewide has to not only do well