Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Michigan Republican Mike Rogers, biceps bulging and waving to a parade crowd. Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan, holding out her hand and standing on a pile of cash. Texas Democrat James Talarico, wearing a dress and singing a parody of the Sound of Music classic "My Favorite Things” that mocks trans rights. These are a few examples of AI-generated deepfake campaign ads, which have become increasingly prevalent this cycle. In each case, politicians’ actual voice and image were manipulated to imply they are doing or saying something they did not. Given the high stakes and close margins in Congress, it’s not surprising that campaigns and the super PACs that back them are seeking every advantage, even if it means distorting their rival’s record (or in the case of Senate hopeful Rogers, enhancing his own image.) The trend has alarmed lawmakers and experts, who worry these fake videos will mislead voters. “We're just going to see more and more extreme advertising, we're going to get more misinformation, and more people [will] get deceived," said Colin Campbell, an associate professor of marketing at the University of San Diego who studies deepfakes. AI-generated fakes aren’t limited to political ads, but Campbell notes, “There's a lot more at stake when it comes to political advertising than just using [AI] in a McDonald's ad.” Democrats in Congress are seeking to crack down on deepfakes. A bipartisan group of lawmakers has reintroduced legislation that would protect the right of individuals to control their voice and likeness and empower them to take action against “bad actors,” among other provisions. Vermont Rep. Becca Balint, a key sponsor of the measure, was herself recently targeted by a fake ad that used her voice and likeness. “Vermonters deserve to know that when they are looking at a campaign ad, that it's actually the person it claims to be, and that's why we need stronger AI regulation now, not later,’’ the Democrat said on social media. Some advocates say campaigns simply need to disclose if their ads rely on AI. But Campbell is skeptical that would address the problem. “People don't actually notice disclosures," he said. An outright ban on AI deepfakes “is probably the most reasonable thing to do, because there's no upside.” Starting gate New York next: The spring primary stretch is drawing to a close, with New York voters set to pick their nominees next week. Primaries for a handful of safe Democratic seats in New York City have captured significant attention, while Democrats in the Hudson Valley have to decide on who gets to face GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, one of their party’s top targets this year. Busy in the Beehive State: With control of the House on the line, a redrawn district in Utah has presented Democrats with a rare opportunity to pick up a seat. But the state is also hosting two Republican primaries: in the new 2nd District, where third-term Rep. Blake D. Moore faces a challenge from state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee, and in the 3rd District, where Rep. Celeste Maloy is working to stave off former state Rep. Phil Lyman. Trump’s wins: A pair of Southern Republicans endorsed by Donald Trump won their Senate primary runoffs Tuesday, but the president suffered a setback with the loss of his pick for Georgia governor. D.C. changes: Robert White won the Democratic primary for the District of Columbia’s nonvoting delegate to Congress. As our colleague Nina Heller reported, the at-large member of the D.C. Council is poised to succeed Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, who has held the seat since 1991. D.C. will also select a new mayor this year: Janeese Lewis George, a democratic socialist, has the most votes thus far, and her main rival, former D.C. Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie, conceded Thursday morning. Not so fast: Republican leaders in the Georgia General Assembly reversed course on redistricting, saying they would not seek to redraw the state’s congressional map during a special session that kicked off Wednesday. Gov. Brian Kemp had called the special session in part to reconsider congressional lines ahead of the 2028 elections. An unlikely alliance: Three of the Democrats running in next week’s primary to succeed retiring Rep. Steny H. Hoyer teamed up to criticize the influx of outside spending to support rival Adrian Boafo, who is backed by Hoyer and other top Maryland leaders. ICYMI Redistricting boost: A new memo by the National Republican Congressional Committee asserts that the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting blitz will likely be a key factor in preserving the party’s House majority. “House Democrats are defending Trump-won seats, losing ground with voters, fighting each other in brutal primaries, and trying to win back the majority on terrain that has shifted decisively against them,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement. #OK01: Jackson Lahmeyer, a Trump-backed pastor who qualified for the Republican primary runoff for an open Tulsa-area House seat, ended his campaign days after The Daily Mail raised questions about his relationship with a campaign fundraiser. Lahmeyer’s decision came immediately after Trump threw his support behind state Rep. Mark Tedford, who finished first in the primary. Tedford now enters the general election as the firm favorite to succeed Senate hopeful Kevin Hern. #CA14: The special election for the seat Democrat Eric Swalwell vacated amid sexual assault allegations is heading to an Aug. 18 face-off between the top two finishers. State Sen. Aisha Wahab has secured one of the spots, according to The Associated Press, with the other yet to be called at publication time. Endorsement tracker: California Rep. Ro Khanna is backing organizer Elijah Manley in Florida’s 20th District, where he’s running in a crowded Democratic primary that also includes Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz. More reservations: House Majority PAC, which has ties to House Democratic leadership, announced additional TV and digital ad reservations in Virginia and Florida, with new reservations in Norfolk and Richmond, as well as in Miami and West Palm Beach. Meanwhile, the American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of the Republican super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, launched a $3 million ad campaign in Florida, Washington state and Virginia’s 2nd District focused on affordability. Name game: Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan is set be the only candidate with his name on the primary ballot this August, after a top state elections official said a challenger also named Dan Sullivan had not filed to run “an actual good-faith candidacy.” Sullivan the challenger can appeal the ruling. Returning Kean: New Jersey Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr., who has been absent from Capitol Hill since early March due to an undisclosed medical issue, plans to return for votes on June 30, per the New Jersey Globe. The second-term Republican faces a tough challenge from Democrat Rebecca Bennett this fall. Nathan's notes Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales breaks down the recent rating changes in 12 House races made by Inside Elections — 11 of them in Democrats’ favor. For the moment, House Republicans appear well in the fight to retain their majority this fall, but this could be the calm before the storm, Nathan writes. What we're reading He arrived with hope but left in tears: The Texas Tribune chronicles the bitter reception received by Muslim attendees at the Texas GOP convention in Houston over the weekend. One man, Mohamed Hussein, told the outlet he was appalled by the anti-Muslim comments he heard and ultimately left the gathering in tears. California blamin’: California’s 40th District was crafted to be more hospitable to the GOP, though the party’s voter registration edge remains fairly narrow. The November ballot features a match-up between two Republican incumbents, Ken Calvert and Young Kim. The Orange County Register examines the recrimination that has taken hold among Democrats in the aftermath of their stinging loss in the June 3 all-party primary. #MESEN: Susan Collins has won five Senate elections touting “what she can do for Maine,” Democratic former Rep. Tom Allen, her 2008 opponent, told Slate for a profile that looks at how the Republican has campaigned on bringing millions back to her home state over the years. Address snafu: In New Haven, Conn., voters from at least 432 addresses were assigned to vote in the wrong state legislative district, a review by the Connecticut secretary of state’s office found. Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro appears to be one of the affected voters, the New Haven Independent reports. Big Sky Conflict: The New York Times looks at the state of the Senate race in Montana, where left-leaning voters are split between the Democratic nominee and an independent candidate, putting Republican Kurt Alme seemingly on a glide path to victory this fall. The count: $34.4 million That's how much money was collectively loaned by billionaire David Trone and millionaire incumbent April McClain Delaney through June 16 ahead of next week's Democratic primary for Maryland's 6th District. Trone, who held the seat for three terms before vacating it for an unsuccessful Senate run in 2024, has loaned his campaign $25 million so far this cycle. McClain Delaney, who succeeded Trone, has loaned her campaign $9.4 million. Trone is no stranger to making eye-popping personal loans. He spent more than $30 million on past House campaigns before pouring in nearly $63 million into his Senate bid, which he lost to fellow Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. Key race: #NY12 Candidates: The Democratic primary for the open 12th District has drawn several candidates, but four have earned the most attention: state Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores; social media influencer Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of former President John F. Kennedy; and George Conway, a former Republican lawyer who became a prominent Trump critic. Also running are public health expert Nina Schwalbe, attorneys Patrick Timmins and Laura Dunn, and software engineer Chris Diep. Why it matters: Longtime Rep. Jerrold Nadler is retiring, leaving open this deep-blue seat covering Midtown and Upper Manhattan. Nadler’s successor could potentially hold the seat for years to come. Cash dash: Conway was leading the fundraising race as of June 3, when pre-primary reports were due to the Federal Election Commission. He had raised $6.6 million, including $2 million in loans, and had $914,000 on hand for the campaign’s final stretch. Schlossberg had raised $3.9 million, including a $1 million loan, and had $1.3 million banked. Bores had raised $3.7 million and had $1.8 million available, while Lasher had raised $2.6 million and had $1.1 million on hand. The race has also drawn more than $32 million in independent expenditures by outside groups. Stand for New York PAC, which is backed by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has spent $10.4 million to support Lasher, while Nuestro PAC has dropped $2.2 million to oppose his campaign. Groups tied to the artificial intelligence industry have also spent heavily in the race both for and against Bores, who, as a state legislator, authored AI legislation that has become a focal point in the race. Backers: Nadler has endorsed Lasher, his onetime aide who is also backed by another former boss, Gov. Kathy Hochul. New York Rep. Pat Ryan, Illinois Rep. Bill Foster and former New York Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney, who previously represented part of the district, are backing Bores, who has also touted the support of several labor unions. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Schlossberg. What they’re saying: Conway’s prominence as a sharp Trump critic grew during the president’s first term, even though Conway's then-wife, Kellyanne Conway, managed Trump’s campaign and worked in the White House. Conway has sharply criticized Trump throughout his campaign and vowed to impeach him for a third time. Bores has defended his work to safeguard AI technology, arguing that the race is an early opportunity for voters to send to Congress someone who wants to regulate AI. Lasher has touted his experience working in the state Assembly and for Bloomberg, Nadler and Hochul. Schlossberg has criticized the outside groups spending in the race and has advocated bringing a new generation into the Democratic Party. Terrain: The 12th District was redrawn ahead of the 2022 elections to cover both the Upper East and West sides, as well as much of Midtown Manhattan. Kamala Harris carried the district by 64 points in 2024, while Nadler won what would be his final election by 61 points. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Democratic. Wild card: While New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has endorsed in a trio of other Big Apple House races this year, he hasn’t endorsed in this district. Mamdani is now a 12th District voter. Coming up Primary season rolls on with a slew of states deciding their fall nominees on Tuesday. They include Maryland, New York and Utah, while South Carolina is holding runoff elections to decide primary winners. Photo finish Rep. Adriano Espaillat is among several New York Democrats facing competitive primary challenges next week. Here he is greeting the crowd at the 116th Street Festival in Spanish Harlem during his first run for Congress, in 2012. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
