After Connecticut Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy guided the state through the Newtown shootings, it’s not unreasonable to expect a rally-around-the-flag dynamic for him. But that hasn’t happened.

A June 12-17 Quinnipiac University poll found 47 percent of registered voters in Connecticut approved of the job Malloy was doing, while 47 percent disapproved. The governor received slightly favorable ratings on the gun issue, but his job approval suffered because of his handling of the budget, taxes and economy.

But Republicans might be faced with a primary before they can focus on Malloy. House Minority Leader Larry Cafero announced last week that he wasn’t running, but state Sen. John McKinney and 2010 nominee Tom Foley are considered likely candidates. In 2010, Malloy won with less than 50 percent of the vote — and a margin of less than 1 percentage point over Foley.

That tight 2010 margin does not mean that 2014 is within reach for Republicans, but this race is worth watching at this point. We are moving the race from Democrat Favored to Lean Democrat in the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings.