Key House and Senate Races Are in Distinctly Different Locations

Roll Call’s most vulnerable incumbents list is out, one year before midterms

Posted November 6, 2017 at 1:09pm
Loading the player...

There is a striking lack of overlap between the Senate and House battleground races taking shape. Over 70 percent of the competitive House races are in states without a key Senate race.

[Check out Roll Call’s coverage of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents, and the 10 most vulnerable Senate incumbents from Simone Pathé and Bridget Bowman.]

On one hand, that could make it easier for House candidates to build their name identification and deliver their messages without the clutter of ads from other races.

But it also means that House candidates can’t rely on a boost from well-funded Senate campaigns to turn out their voters. In states such as California — where there are 10 important House races — and New York — with four competitive seats — there will be a greater burden on the individual Democratic candidates and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to build, fund and manage get-out-the-vote operations.

Key Election Map-01 (1)

In other states, such as Nevada, Florida, and Pennsylvania, House candidates could benefit from competitive Senate and gubernatorial races at the top of the ballot. Although those Senate races could also make TV ad space more rare and expensive.