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Voters Still Split on Who They Want to Control Congress, Poll Finds

Public ambivalence at odds with predictions of a blue wave

The sun sets over the U.S. Capitol in Washington in November 2015. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)
The sun sets over the U.S. Capitol in Washington in November 2015. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Voters remain divided over the party they want to control Congress after the midterms, in spite of growing media sentiment of an eminent blue wave.

That’s according to an Economist/YouGov poll released Wendesday, which found 33 percent of respondents preferred Democratic control, compared to 31 percent who said they wanted Republicans to win. 

The findings are at odds with recent projections, which take into account factors including the number of competitive seats, the national mood after President Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, and historical trends that show both parties struggle in the midterms after gaining control of the White House. 

The “playing field just keeps tilting toward Democrats,” CNN’s Chris Cillizza wrote Monday, based on a network analysis.

Midterm forecasting from The Economist, the parent company of CQ Roll Call, puts Democrats at a 71 percent chance of winning the House.

And Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball declared last week that the House would, “tilt Democratic.” 

Democrats need to win a net of 23 seats to regain the House majority. 

The YouGov/Economist Poll surveyed 1,500 U.S. adults from July 29-31, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.   

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